2021年7月14日 星期三

The Coronavirus Brief: The pandemic's impact on climate science

And other recent COVID-19 news |

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Wednesday, July 14, 2021
BY JEFFREY KLUGER

How COVID-19 Has Affected Climate Research

Climate scientists must go where the trouble is. You can’t study ocean temperatures if you can’t get your research vessels out to sea. You can’t study polar melt if you can’t get out to the glaciers. As my colleague Jennifer Duggan reports, that fact has meant problems for climate studies in 2020 and 2021, as travel has been halted due to the pandemic and researchers have been prevented from getting out into the field.

One of the biggest trouble spots, as Jennifer reports, is the Arctic, where temperatures are expected to rise at twice the global rate over the next five years, and where climate scientists routinely camp out, measuring surface sea-ice temperature, taking core samples, monitoring ice melt and more. But when the pandemic hit, governments and research institutes recalled almost all research ships—and most are still berthed, making 2021 the second year in a row in which measurements of glaciers and permafrost have not been taken.

It’s not just polar research that has suffered. According to a recent United Nations report, the pandemic has caused “significant impacts” to land-, marine-, and air-based observing systems, leading to gaps in data that could affect the long-term quality of forecasts and climate services. Climate-related conferences and negotiations have been hard hit too. One of the largest examples of global scientific collaboration are the reports produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) , the U.N. body that assesses the science related to climate change. Thousands of scientists and researchers from 195 countries collaborate on the reports, which are produced every four years. This year’s report, which was supposed to be completed by April, is months behind schedule.

As with so many pandemic-related things, the impact of the slowdown in research is affecting women more than men; many in the field have been forced to take on a disproportionate share of childcare. “I’m concerned about the careers of female scientists without childcare. At a time when publication track record is really important. Some of them have been really hard hit,” says Valérie Masson-Delmotte, co-chair of the IPCC Working Group.

Ultimately, of course, it’s all of us who will pay the price if climate research isn’t conducted. COVID-19 has stolen the health of millions worldwide. The health of the planet is also on the line.

Read more here.


TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK

About 387.2 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this afternoon, of which nearly 335 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. About 48% of Americans have been completely vaccinated.

More than 187.7 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 4 million people have died. On July 13, there were 492,688 new cases and 9,049 new deaths confirmed globally.

Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:

Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:

And here's every country that has reported over 3 million cases:

The U.S. had recorded nearly 34 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 607,700 people have died. On July 13, there were 25,919 new cases and 372 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.

Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:

Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:

All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of July 14, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.


WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW

The European Union is barring entry to the continent for people vaccinated with the Indian-made version of the AstraZeneca vaccine, but not for those inoculated with the same shot manufactured in Europe, according to the Associated Press. EU officials complain that AstraZeneca has not yet completed paperwork detailing manufacturing methods and quality-control standards at its Indian manufacturing plant—even though the World Health Organization has inspected the factory and approved its conditions. Critics charge that the EU move will not only reduce tourism and other travel on which the economy of the continent depends, but also diminish public confidence in the Indian shot.

Nearly half of the residents of Jakarta, Indonesia’s capital city, have been infected with COVID-19, according to a health survey by the Jakarta Public Health Office published July 10, reports CNN. With a population of 10.6 million, the city has had an estimated total 4.7 million COVID-19 cases, a figure 12 times higher than previous official estimates. The report was released at the same time Indonesia is experiencing a severe spike in infections and fatalities, with up to 1,000 deaths recorded per day. Health officials blame the surge on both the spread of the Delta variant and the slow start the government got in initiating wide-scale testing and contact tracing.

In a sign of a rebounding U.S. economy, Delta Airlines has reported its first quarterly profit since the pandemic began, according to the Wall Street Journal. The second quarter profit of $652 million comes after five straight quarterly losses. Delta chief Ed Bastian credits what he describes as “overwhelming” demand for air travel in the early summer for the turnaround. But analysts warn that the good times could be short-lived. The return to school in the fall will limit leisure travel and it is uncertain whether the pandemic may have permanently altered business travel, as companies learned to get along without it during quarantines.

New cases of COVID-19 have exploded in The Netherlands, from June 25, the day before restrictions were lifted, to this week, reports the New York Times , with the daily confirmed caseload leaping from 500 to 10,000. The surge led Prime Minister Mark Rutte to issue a public apology for easing lockdown rules prematurely. Health authorities blame part of the rise on an estimated 100 super-spreader events that occurred after restrictions were lifted, including a single music festival to which 1,000 cases were traced. Relatively low vaccination rates play a role too. To date, an estimated 65% of the national population has received at least one dose of a vaccine, but just 39% are fully vaccinated, according to the Times’ vaccine tracker.

Close to 3,000 passengers and crew have been confined to their cabins aboard a Singaporean cruise ship after one passenger tested positive for COVID-19, reports Reuters . With most ports of call closed, Singapore, which has weathered the pandemic with a comparatively low caseload, resumed luxury ship travel with so-called “cruises to nowhere”—multi-day round trips out and back with no stops along the way. The move was seen as a way to reopen the cruising industry while coping with the reality of lockdowns and limiting the risk of infection. Passengers and crew aboard the quarantined ship will not be permitted to leave until contact tracing for the infected passenger is completed. Everyone onboard will also have to undergo a rapid COVID-19 test.

With the highest per capita rate of new cases in Southeast Asia, Malaysia suffered another blow yesterday when a vaccination center was shuttered after half of its workers tested positive for COVID-19, reports the New York Times. Troublingly, 400 of the total 453 total workers had been vaccinated already, meaning that nearly all the cases were breakthrough infections. The center was closed for a deep cleaning and was expected to reopen today. The surge in cases in Malaysia is, as elsewhere, being blamed on the rise of the Delta variant.


Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.

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Today's newsletter was written by Jeffrey Kluger and edited by Elijah Wolfson.

 
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