Welcome to the Fourth Coronavirus Wave in the U.S.
From wildfires to hurricanes, we've used lots of natural-disaster metaphors to describe the COVID-19 outbreak over the past year-plus. But my colleague Chris Wilson has a new deadly phenomenon to throw into the mix: rip tides.
As Chris sees it, the recent spike in cases in the U.S.—clustered as it is in the relatively under-vaccinated states of Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri—resembles a rip tide tearing from the southern Midwest all the way back into the Gulf of Mexico, putting millions in danger as it goes:
But Chris' novel analogy may not hold for long. While highly vaccinated areas are better protected against dramatic spikes, wide swaths of the country are under-inoculated and thus vulnerable to fresh outbreaks. Given that these latest spikes are fueled by the more transmissible Delta variant, it could be just a few more weeks until the above image once again looks more like a map of wildfires, with blazes burning not just in the south and midwest, but in hotspots across the country.
One potential danger is that those fires are already burning, just invisibly so. As Chris reports, some experts are concerned that testing is now playing second fiddle to vaccination, making it harder to paint an accurate picture of the nationwide outbreak. Jennifer Nuzzo, the lead epidemiologist for the Johns Hopkins University Testing Insights Initiative, says that while we're probably doing a good job of recording severe cases, "it's everybody else that I worry about." "We have turned our telescope to a different part of the sky."
If there is a nationwide fourth wave, its impact may be blunted by vaccination, which could prevent a spike in deaths even if cases rise. Even still, the threat of fresh viral spread has convinced at least some leaders to batten down the hatches. Those in Los Angeles County, Calif., for instance, just yesterday reinstituted an indoor mask mandate for everyone regardless of their vaccination status—a major rollback that comes despite U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance holding that vaccinated people need not wear masks.
It's a safe bet that at least some other communities will follow suit. For those who are particularly vulnerable or cautious, it's probably not a bad idea to start masking up indoors again—I'm doing so, mostly because I have an unvaccinated toddler at home and it seems silly to put him at extra risk just because I prefer to not wear a mask on my weekly grocery run. On a broader scale, mass vaccination is our best defense against yet another wave—the monsoon rains that end the drought, preventing yet another calamitous wildfire.
About 390.2 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this afternoon, of which some 338.2 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. About 48.6% of Americans have been completely vaccinated.
More than 190.4 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 4 million people have died. On July 18, there were 419,723 new cases and 6,529 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here's every country that has reported over 3 million cases:
The U.S. had recorded nearly 34 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. About 609,000 people have died. On July 18, there were 12,048 new cases and 135 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of July 19, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
It's "Freedom Day" in England, where nearly all virus-related restrictions have been lifted as of this morning—despite an alarming rise in cases driven by the more transmissible Delta variant. The move is a risky gambit on the part of U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who argues that Britons can make their own best judgements about what's safe and what isn't. "Please, please, please be cautious," he said in a statement yesterday. "Go forward tomorrow into the next step with all the right prudence and respect for other people and the risks that the disease continues to present."
Five Texas lawmakers so far have tested positive for COVID-19 after leaving their state for Washington, D.C. in an effort to stall a Republican-led effort to pass legislation that critics say will excessively restrict the right to vote in the state, the Texas Tribune reports. All five had been fully vaccinated, and none are reporting serious symptoms. “This is a sober reminder that COVID is still with us, and though vaccinations offer tremendous protection, we still must take necessary precautions," said Texas Rep. Chris Turner, the House Democratic Caucus chair.
Canada, which sits atop the U.S. geographically, now sits atop it in the vaccination race as well, the New York Times reports—Canada has vaccinated 49% of its residents, compared to 48.6% in the U.S. That's good news for those in the Great White North, and represents a turnaround, since the Canadian government struggled mightily to acquire, distribute and administer vaccines earlier in the rollout. Leaders in Washington, meanwhile, are now struggling not with supply, but demand, as many Americans remain reluctant to get their shot.
Israel, which was set to allow vaccinated tourists to enter the country beginning Aug. 1, is delaying those plans indefinitely, the Jerusalem Post reports. The change comes amid a slight rise in cases in Israel—among the world's most-vaccinated countries—as well as concerns about the Delta variant. Israeli health officials may also recommend tightening travel restrictions for citizens, the Post reports.
Yet another Team USA Olympic athlete—Kara Eaker, an 18-year-old gymnastics alternate—has tested positive for the coronavirus. Eaker, who's now in isolation in Japan where she was training ahead of the Games, was vaccinated two months ago, per the Associated Press. The news comes after U.S. tennis phenom Coco Gauff, who was set to lead the U.S. tennis squad, announced yesterday that she too has tested positive and will miss the Olympics entirely. These announcements are likely to fuel public criticism about holding the Games despite the risk to athletes and the wider community.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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