Our current global health nightmare officially began on Dec. 31, 2019, when Chinese authorities reported treating a cluster of patients with an unknown viral pneumonia. But by then, the disease we now know as COVID-19 had likely been spreading undetected for weeks or more.
We may never know the exact date on which the virus passed from an animal to human and triggered the pandemic. But a global search party made up of the world’s best epidemiologists, virologists and disease detectives is doing everything it can to find out.
The search for patient zero isn’t about blaming the unlucky individual who first contracted COVID-19. Rather, “understanding how pandemics start, and how viruses evolve and move around the world, is critical to managing them in a smart and more effective way,” says TIME’s Alice Park, who, along with our colleague Charlie Campbell, broke down the massive effort to trace the virus back to its roots.
Right now, experts’ leading theory is that the virus behind COVID-19 originated in bats, then traveled to pangolins (a small, scale-covered mammal often trafficked for its meat and use in Traditional Chinese Medicine) and later made the jump to humans. Understanding exactly where and how the virus made that jump could inform future policy decisions regarding issues on wildlife hunting and consumption, for example.
It’s also critical to understand how the virus made its way from Wuhan, China to the rest of the world. This work is being done in large part via genetic sequencing, with impressive speed. Chinese scientists genetically sequenced the new coronavirus within weeks of its reported emergence, giving public health experts around the world a valuable reference point. They watched the virus slowly mutate over time (as all viruses do), and used the subtle differences in samples from patients to determine where the virus was moving and how quickly it was infecting people. Armed with that data, scientists saw the point at which COVID-19 started spreading on its own in the U.S., versus entering the country via unknowing travelers.
Pieces of the COVID-19 puzzle are still coming together, and it’s possible that scientists will never know exactly how the whole jigsaw looks. But the closer they get, the better they can respond—not only to this pandemic, but also to the next one.
More than 15.5 million people around the world had been sickened by COVID-19 as of 1 AM eastern time today, and more than 633,000 people had died.
Here is every country with over 250,000 confirmed cases:
Europe is in a precarious position as countries across the continent report rising numbers of cases. France, Germany and Belgium are all seeing increases. María José Sierra, the deputy head of Spain's center for health emergencies, warned the country may be in the midst of a second wave as it reported almost 1,000 new cases yesterday, The Guardian reports. Some countries are stepping up precautions to avoid further damage. France has advised its residents not to travel to the Spanish region of Catalonia due to an uptick there, and countries including Belgium and the U.K. have implemented mandatory face mask policies to control the virus’ spread.
Meanwhile, China has offered a $1 billion loan to nations across Latin America and the Caribbean to ensure their access to any Chinese-developed COVID-19 vaccine, CNN reports. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly made the pledge during a virtual meeting with Latin American foreign ministers, in an apparent effort to assuage fears that a successful Chinese vaccine will go to the highest bidder. The move comes as China seeks to expand its influence around the world, particularly with developing nations.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. recorded more than 4 million coronavirus cases as of 1 AM eastern time today. More than 144,000 people have died.
On July 23, there were 68,663 new cases and 1,114 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
According to data from Johns Hopkins University, the U.S. went from 2 million to 3 million cases between June 10 and July 8, a timespan of about a month. But it took just about two weeks more to get from 3 million to 4 million. Driven by these rapidly rising case numbers, a group of 150 medical experts sent a letter to U.S. political leaders yesterday, urging them to shut down the country and try again to get the virus under control. "Right now we are on a path to lose more than 200,000 American lives by November 1st. Yet, in many states people can drink in bars, get a haircut, eat inside a restaurant, get a tattoo, get a massage, and do myriad other normal, pleasant, but non-essential activities," the letter said, according to CNN.
Around the same time the U.S. passed the 4 million mark, President Donald Trump walked back some of his prior statements on reopening schools. Trump, who had called for a full return to school this fall, said yesterday that some schools “may need to delay reopening for a few weeks,” though educators should still be planning to return to the classroom.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention yesterday released new school-reopening guidelines that strongly support a return to in-person learning this fall, except in areas where there’s uncontrolled viral spread. The agency’s latest guidelines note that children seem to contract and spread the virus less than adults, and suffer educationally and emotionally when they’re out of the classroom. “It is critically important for our public health to open schools this fall,” CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield said in a statement.
Early signs of pandemic-era economic recovery in the U.S. seem to be reversing. Labor Department data show 1.4 million new people filed for state unemployment benefits last week, a roughly 100,000-person increase from the two weeks before. Furthermore, about 4 million fewer people were employed last week than the week before, according to the Census Bureau. The dismal numbers are likely a reflection of some businesses having to re-shutter in response to surging case numbers, and others feeling the squeeze of months of financial hardship.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of July 24, 1 AM eastern time. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
How to Make Homemade Masks More Effective
If you’re making your own face masks out of t-shirts or other fabric, it’s important to double (or triple) up on layers, according to a new study. Read more here.
Kids Don’t Often Get Sick with COVID-19, But They’re Still Suffering
Children have been mostly spared from the worst physical effects of COVID-19, but as TIME’s Jeffrey Kluger reports, lockdowns and uncertainty may be affecting their mental health even more than that of adults. Read more here.
How Norway Is Reopening with Cautious Optimism
Norweigan Prime Minister Erna Solberg told TIME’s Dan Stewart how, via lockdowns and ramped up testing, her country managed to suppress COVID-19 and put itself on the path to reopening. Read more here.
In Memoriam: Rev. Vickey Gibbs, Pastor Who Fought for Inclusion
Rev. Vickey Gibbs, a beloved associate pastor at Houston's Resurrection Metropolitan Community Church, who pushed for diversity and inclusion, died this month from coronavirus at age 57. Read about her life here.
Correction: Yesterday’s newsletter misstated the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide. There were 15.2 million as of yesterday, not 1.52 million.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jamie Ducharme and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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