As Expected, Coronavirus Deaths in the U.S. Are Now Ticking Back Up
For weeks, some politicians and commentators have argued that, while cases were rising dramatically in states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona, the mortality rate in those states remained relatively low. The optimists saw the low death rates as something to celebrate—a sign that those states would be spared the hell that gripped the New York metro area earlier this year.
But the deaths are beginning to arrive. After trending downwards from a daily high point of 2,238 new deaths in mid-April, the number of new daily deaths in the U.S. is once again beginning to rise, hitting nearly 900 on Friday before dipping slightly Saturday:
Whether any of those states experience fatality on the scale of New York , where nearly 1,000 people were dying every day in parts of April, remains to be seen. Physicians have gotten better at treating the disease, which scientists now understand at least a little more than they did when it was brand new. The people now getting sick tend to be younger, and therefore less likely to suffer severe cases (but they can still carry the virus to older, more vulnerable people). Increased testing can also help keep the death count low, by identifying people who have been infected and can then self-isolate (but U.S. testing infrastructure is once again buckling under spiking demand).
Almost all closely watched COVID-19 metrics are what economists call “lagging indicators,” which confirm trends in hindsight, but can’t predict them in advance. And none lag as much as the death count—it can take weeks or even months , after all, to become infected by, get sick, and die of the virus; delays in reporting and other paperwork add further lag. So it will be some time before the scope of the nightmare we’ve likely already entered becomes clear. There is a chance that we once again reach a point where many hundreds, or even thousands, of Americans are dying every day. There is also a chance that the pandemic plays out like a slow-motion disaster, killing a relatively low number each day, but still resulting in a massive overall death toll by the time a vaccine is ready.
What’s particularly distressing about either scenario is that Americans have shown a unique willingness to accept mass death as a daily course of life in the U.S.—just look to our essentially nonexistent response to mass shootings for evidence of that. This might at least partially explain why visitors are flocking to recently reopened Disney World, despite Florida just setting a new all-time record for daily cases among U.S. states. As a country, we seem all too willing to ignore the virus until it goes away—or takes away somebody we love. Of course, New York eventually clawed its way out of the abyss. Here’s hoping that other states can do the same, too.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 12.9 million people around the world had been sickened by COVID-19 as of 1 AM eastern time this morning, and nearly 570,000 people had died.
Here is every country with over 200,000 confirmed cases:
World Health Organization Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in remarks today that “there will be no return to the ‘old normal’ for the foreseeable future.” But he suggested three steps that can help the world “control the disease and get on with our lives:” reducing mortality and transmission; getting individuals to follow guidelines like mask-wearing and handwashing; and governments exhibiting strong leadership combined with international cooperation.
The pandemic has been brutal in Brazil, home to the world’s second-highest number of cases (more than 1.8 million) and deaths (72,100). But it’s particularly devastating for the country’s indigenous people, who show a mortality rate twice that of the rest of the population, CNN reports.
Officials in Hong Kong are once again re-introducing social distancing rules amid concerns over a “third wave” of infections, Reuters reports. Gyms and gaming centers are shutting down for a week, while gatherings will be limited to only four people, down from 50. The changes come after Hong Kong recorded 52 new cases on Monday.
U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is encouraging Brits to wear face masks while shopping indoors, though he stopped short of mandating their use nationwide. "I do think that in shops it is very important to wear a face covering if you are going to be in a confined space and want to protect other people and receive protection in turn,” Johnson said in an interview, the BBC reports.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. recorded more than 3.3 million coronavirus cases as of 1 AM eastern time this morning. More than 135,200 people have died.
On July 12, there were 59,017 new cases and 428 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
More than 100,000 new coronavirus cases were recorded across the U.S. over the weekend, with seven states setting records for new daily cases, per the Washington Post, yet another sign that the country’s outbreak is spiraling wildly out of control.
White House officials are taking aim at Dr. Anthony Fauci, longtime head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, by anonymously circulating to reporters a list of what the unnamed writers describe as Fauci’s errors early in the pandemic. Fauci, who has played a key role in the U.S. pandemic response and rush to create a vaccine, has long shown a willingness to speak his mind rather than sugar-coat reality in a way that might politically benefit President Donald Trump’s administration.
Speaking of Trump, the President on Monday retweeted a post from former game-show-host-turned political commentator Chuck Woolery, which claimed that “everyone is lying” about the pandemic. “The CDC, Media, Democrats, our Doctors, not all but most, that we are told to trust [sic]” reads the post. “I think it's all about the election and keeping the economy from coming back, which is about the election. I'm sick of it.” The conspiracy-laden message comes as Trump appears increasingly convinced that his political rivals are hyping the virus, and subsequent economic downturn, as a means of dimming his re-election chances.
Austin mayor Steve Adler is blaming “failure at the statewide level” for the surge in cases across Texas, telling CNN this morning that the state was woefully late in mandating masks, which have been shown to curb viral spread. "There needs to be a very clear message that masks are mandatory and have to be worn,” Adler said.
Those in President Trump’s inner circle are beginning to wonder if this year’s Republican National Convention, which was moved from Charlotte, N.C., to Jacksonville, Fla., is worth having at all, given the rapidly worsening situation in the Sunshine State, the Associated Press reports. But the decision about the event, set for late next month, is ultimately Trump’s to make.
Meanwhile, California's two largest public-school districts—Los Angeles and San Diego—announced today that they will be remote-only when they reopen in the fall, according to the New York Times. That decision follows Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos's statements over the weekend that reaffirmed the Trump administration’s case to quickly reopen public schools.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of July 13, 1 AM eastern time. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
COVID-19 Reinvades U.S. States That Already Beat It
California, Washington, Michigan and other states that previously seemed to have the virus at bay are now experiencing increasing case counts, Bloomberg reports. Part of the problem may be that people are getting tired of following public health guidelines, like social distancing and wearing masks when around others. Read more here.
Smoking Makes Young Adults More Vulnerable
Young adults who smoke are about twice as likely to be vulnerable to the worst effects of COVID-19, according to a new study conducted by researchers at UC San Francisco Benioff Children’s Hospitals. “Efforts to reduce smoking and e-cigarette use among young adults would likely lower their vulnerability to severe disease,” said Dr. Charles Irwin, one of the study’s authors, in a statement. Read more here.
Bottleneck for U.S. Coronavirus Response: The Fax Machine
Public health officials fighting against the pandemic are being hobbled by a patchwork of incompatible systems, outmoded data formats and even misbehaving fax machines, the New York Times reports. Read more here.
Why Extreme Heat Is So Alarming for Viral Spread
While some once hoped that COVID-19 would not spread as easily in hotter climates, the recent surges in Texas, Arizona and Florida demonstrate otherwise. In fact, as this Vox analysis shows, the heat can contribute to viral spread, in part because people flock to cool indoor locations to chill themselves. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
If you were forwarded this and want to sign up to receive it daily, click here.
Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
沒有留言:
張貼留言