New York Is Sealing Itself Off From the Rest of the Country
It was awfully hard to be a New Yorker back in the spring, when coronavirus cases were exploding and hospitals were overwhelmed by patients. But since then, compared to other regions, the New York-New Jersey-Connecticut area has begun to look like a model of good health, with cases plummeting and the infection curve flattening. Daily positive test rates in New York, for example, now range from a high of just 2.3% in New York City’s Staten Island to a low of 0.2% in the state’s north, as NBC reports; the statewide positivity rate was nearly 50% back in late April and early March.
To help keep things that way, those three states are requiring people (including their own residents) coming from hard-hit states to self-quarantine for 14 days before venturing out in public. A whopping 31 states meet the criteria to be included in the tri-state area’s no-thank-you list: a positive test rate of at least 10% or an infection rate of 10 cases per 100,000 people over a seven day rolling period. The entire South, nearly all of the Midwest (except Illinois and Michigan) and the entire West, with the exception of Oregon, are on the list.
Policing the quarantine rules is all but impossible; the three states are instead depending on the honor system. To press the point, however, all travelers arriving at New York airports are required to fill out health forms before leaving the building. Violation of quarantine rules in New York—assuming anyone gets caught—carries a $2,000 fine.
It’s not as if the states on New York’s quarantine list aren’t aware that they’re in trouble. Across the country, states that were once reopening are now rolling things back, with an emphasis on restricting social gatherings. Kentucky is limiting restaurant seating to just 25% of capacity and is shuttering bars for at least the next two weeks. In a far milder step, Columbus, Ohio, is mandating that bars close by 10 PM, minimizing the time people have to be exposed to the virus. Overall, at least 27 states that had begun reopening have reversed course to at least some extent, and over 30 have imposed mask requirements , per CNN.
Even New York is having to do battle to keep its curve flat. Governor Andrew Cuomo, never reluctant to scold, tweeted his disapproval yesterday of a concert held in Southampton, Long Island over the weekend, stating flatly, “I am appalled.” As the United States’ battle with COVID-19 continues and more lockdowns seem inevitable, ensuring compliance with the rules will no doubt be a major struggle for lawmakers and officials nationwide.
EDITOR'S NOTE
In today’s newsletter, we’re introducing a new set of charts and maps. These graphics are designed to better represent and explain the current moment of the pandemic, by focusing more on how COVID-19 cases and deaths are rising and falling in various parts of the world and in the U.S. At this point in the pandemic, the virus has touched nearly every country on the planet, and what matters most are the regional trends, so as to better understand what is working—and what isn’t—in reducing case and death rates in places seeing mass transmission, and preventing spokes in those places that have, for now, gotten the virus under control.
Everything you see her is also a part of our new interactive COVID-19 dashboard, which we hope can serve as a one-stop shop for understanding the pandemic numbers on a daily basis. Click here to see the dashboard. And for more on the thinking behind it, click here for some background from myself and TIME director of data journalism Chris Wilson. We also invite you to send us feedback and suggestions; this project will evolve with the pandemic, and we value your thoughts along the way. —Elijah Wolfson, senior editor
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 16.4 million people around the world had been sickened by COVID-19 as of 1 AM eastern time today, and more than 654,000 people have died.
Here is every country with over 250,000 confirmed cases:
When it comes to combating COVID-19, Venice, Italy is willing to take its chances, as the always-popular tourist spot prepares to fill with visitors in early September for the 77th edition of its annual film festival. Organizers, who just announced their lineup of films, are seemingly committed to proceeding almost as if there were no pandemic at all, though some changes are being made: the program has been reduced from the usual 80 films to a somewhat more modest 60, and attendees will need to wear masks. Big studios are staying away, according to the New York Times, offering none of the usual blockbusters that often take their first bow at the festival. As to the wisdom of proceeding at all in a time of global plague? “The show must go on and the world must go on,” said Roberto Cicutto, the president of La Biennale di Venezia, which runs the festival, in a phone interview with the Times.
China is paying a public health price for its policies in the Xinjiang region, where the government is already taking heat for human rights abuses toward the Uighur minority group. The country today announced 64 locally transmitted cases of COVID-19—its highest daily total since March, as the Financial Times reports—57 of them in Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang. As many as 1 million Uighurs and other ethnic minorities are being held in internment camps in the area, facilities where close quarters and iffy sanitation can help coronavirus thrive. Even those not in camps could suffer as the government reacts to the outbreak.
For much of this year so far, Africa had been largely spared the worst of the coronavirus pandemic, with South Africa its only severe hotspot—as recently as early June, the continent accounted for only 2.8% of worldwide cases. But that figure has since leapt to 5%, a near doubling in less than two months. The World Health Organization has determined that nearly all of Africa’s 54 nations are experiencing local community transmission. South Africa and Egypt account for 75% of all African cases, but other countries, especially Nigeria, Ghana and Algeria, are slowly catching up. It is not the absolute number of infections that worries health officials so much—though South Africa, with 452,000 cases, fifth most in the world, is clearly in crisis. More troubling is the rate of growth, which matches that of other parts of the world in the earlier stages of their pandemic.
Brazil’s 2.4 million cases of COVID-19 trail only the U.S.’s 4.3 million, and Brazilians are laying the blame squarely at the feet of President Jair Bosonaro. As NPR and others report, "an umbrella group of unions and social organizations representing more than 1 million Brazilian medical professionals'' have filed a complaint with the International Criminal Court in The Hague, charging Bolsonaro with crimes against humanity for general indifference, stubbornness and incompetence in handling the crisis. The group points to the President’s resistance to social distancing measures and his advocacy of hydroxychloroquine and other disproven treatments for the disease. It is unlikely that the court, which is more accustomed to adjucating war crimes and acts of genocide than public health emergencies, would actually take up the case. But as a measure of the rising crisis in Brazil and Bolsonaro’s plummeting popularity, the complaint makes a powerful statement.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. recorded nearly 4.3 million coronavirus cases as of 1 AM eastern time today. More than 148,000 people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On July 27, there were 56,336 new cases and 1,076 new deaths confirmed in the U.S. Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
While it was nearly impossible to find hand sanitizer on store shelves early in the pandemic, supplies have since been replenished. But many varieties now available are dangerous or even deadly, as the Associated Press reports . Most hand sanitizers use ethyl alcohol as their active ingredient, but some Mexican-made off-brands use methanol, which is also used in antifreeze. Methanol can cause blindness, heart problems and death, especially if ingested directly. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration lists 80 brands of sanitizers that should not be used. Furthermore, it warns consumers not to trust product labels, since sanitizers that include methanol typically do not say as much.
Health officials in New Jersey, where the outbreak is relatively under control, were hopping mad over a house party in the town of Jackson over the weekend attended by a head-spinning 700 people. It took officers more than five hours to break up the event, according to CNN. The Health Department of Ocean County says it will track as many attendees as possible, but it’s too early to determine how many new cases of COVID-19 may ultimately be attributed to the gathering.
The COVID-19 crises in Arizona, Texas and Florida continue apace, as the early-opening states are still experiencing dramatically higher caseloads than just a month ago. Florida in particular is still showing increases in hospitalizations and deaths, particularly in the higher-population southern regions. But as CNBC reports , all three states may at least be seeing the beginning of the end of this particular burst of cases. Over the weekend, Arizona reported a 13% drop in seven-day rolling averages of new cases. Texas has seen an even more impressive drop of 19%, while Florida’s weekly caseload fell by 8%. In an appearance on Fox News, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar applauded local residents for “stepping up to the plate.” “It’s due to the fact that people are actually wearing masks,” he added. “They’re social distancing. They’re engaging in good personal hygiene.”
U.S. President Donald Trump may have finally backed away from his anti-mask stance, but when it comes to his advocacy for hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19 (it has repeatedly been shown to be ineffective in treating the disease, and even harmful in some cases), he can’t seem to help himself. The President retweeted multiple messages today advocating the drug, including a video testimonial from a doctor who claims to have successfully used it to treat hundreds of patients. Trump also renewed his attacks on White House coronavirus task force member Dr. Anthony Fauci, retweeting criticisms of him for opposing the drug as a COVID-19 treatment. “The overwhelming prevailing clinical trials that have looked at the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine have indicated that it is not effective in coronavirus disease,” Fauci said in response on Good Morning America today.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of July 28, 1 AM eastern time. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Nursing Home Workers Face Huge Risks
Since the start of the pandemic, nursing homes have reported 760 COVID-19 related fatalities among staffers, according to the Washington Post. At this pace, the industry could see a death rate of 200 per 100,000 workers, double the rate of the nation’s deadliest occupations, like logging and commercial fishing. Read more here.
Infants Are Starving to Death Amid the Pandemic
In the poorest parts of the world, COVID-19 is leading to up to 10,000 infant deaths per month, as rural villages are cut off from markets due to quarantines and other restrictions. An analysis in The Lancet predicted 128,000 additional child deaths over the first year of the pandemic. Read more here.
Volunteers Step Into the Breach in Kyrgyzstan
With just over 2,000 hospital beds available for COVID-19 patients in a country of 6.5 million people, Kyrgyzstan was on the brink of having one of Asia’s worst pandemic crises. But thousands of volunteers have filled the gap, including hotel and restaurant owners, who have converted their facilities into makeshift hospitals, the AP reports. Read more here.
Russia Promises Mass Vaccinations Soon
Moscow is talking up its progress in developing a COVID-19 vaccine, pledging mass vaccinations by the start of next year. But the claims are drawing skepticism due to the tiny size of the first trial group—just 18 patients, as reported by TASS, the official state news agency. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jeffrey Kluger and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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