As society reopens—and the virus continues to spread at breakneck speed—the big question is what, exactly, is leading to coronavirus surges across the U.S. Was it protests? (Signs point to no.) Returning to communal offices? Dining in restaurants? Drinking in bars?
Most likely, it’s a combination of many of these factors, exacerbated by people refusing to wear masks and getting more blasé about social distancing as the coronavirus era stretches on. But new data offer pretty compelling evidence that bars are having an outsized impact on COVID-19 outbreaks across the country, TIME’s Emily Barone reports.
Analysts at Cuebiq, a company that collects anonymized location information from 15 million (consenting) smartphone users, found that states with comparatively heavy bar traffic, like Florida and Texas, also tend to be experiencing soaring COVID-19 numbers. Meanwhile, states that have been more cautious with reopening indoor bars, like New York and New Jersey, are generally not seeing spikes. Several states, including Louisiana, Florida and Michigan, have also traced large clusters of coronavirus cases directly back to bars, Barone notes.
As Cuebiq CEO Antonio Tomarchio warns, correlation does not always mean causation. There could be lots of other things contributing to the trend—for example, many states that reopened bars were also quick to reopen other indoor establishments where the virus could spread. But bars have some unique factors that could encourage viral spread, Georgia State University epidemiologist Gerardo Chowell-Puente told Barone. “The highest risk is in an enclosed space, without a mask,” he said. “In the bar, you are very likely to be talking to people,” which can spread the virus. Bars can also get crowded, and people may let social distancing lapse when they’re a few drinks deep.
It’s impossible to deny the socioeconomic consequences of keeping bars and restaurants closed. Already, millions of service-industry employees have lost their jobs, and many small businesses haven’t survived the shutdowns, a loss for surrounding communities. But given indications that bars are contributing to resurgences in COVID-19 cases, lawmakers and officials may need to find innovative ways to support the industry without letting indoor establishments fully reopen. And patrons who want to meet for a drink would be wise to do so outside, seated as far away from other parties as possible.
Note: The Coronavirus Brief will be off this weekend, and will return on Monday.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 13.8 million people around the world had been sickened by COVID-19 as of 1 AM eastern time today, and nearly 590,000 people had died.
Here is every country with over 250,000 confirmed cases:
Last month, U.K. researchers teased encouraging preliminary data about dexamethasone, a low-cost steroid that appeared effective at treating severe COVID-19. Today, they published their complete results in the New England Journal of Medicine. The paper suggests dexamethasone significantly reduces COVID-19 mortality among severely ill patients who require mechanical ventilation or other forms of breathing support, but it appears to have no such benefit (and maybe even some harm) for patients with milder disease.
Many areas in Asia and the Pacific—including Japan, Hong Kong and Australia—are watching coronavirus case counts climb again, after they originally got their outbreaks under control. Both Tokyo and Hong Kong hit daily records for new coronavirus cases yesterday, and the Australian state of Victoria went back into lockdown on July 8, due to a worsening outbreak in Melbourne, the country's second-largest city. Experts say these examples should serve as warnings for other areas reopening after appearing to get a grip on local outbreaks.
Israel is also re-implementing some lockdown measures in response to a surge in cases there. Gyms and indoor restaurants will close to the public, and many recreational hotspots—including museums and beaches—will close on weekends. Israel has recorded more than 46,500 cases so far, and nearly 400 deaths.
Finally, India passed a grim milestone today: surpassing one million total coronavirus cases. India has the third-highest number of cases in the world, after the U.S. and Brazil. Hundreds of millions of Indians are now back under lockdown measures as the country seeks to get the outbreak there under control.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. recorded more than 3.5 million coronavirus cases as of 1:00 AM eastern time today. More than 138,000 people have died.
On July 16, there were a record-setting 77,255 new cases and 943 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
On Wednesday, some public COVID-19 data was taken down from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s website, following the implementation of a new Trump Administration policy. Today, some of those data went back online . Under the Trump policy, hospitals will now report COVID-19 data—including how many beds and ICU units are available—directly to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, rather than to both HHS and the CDC. After the plan was solidified, the CDC’s hospital dashboard went dark on Wednesday. Some data is back up after swift outcry from the public-health community—but much of the raw data is still not available, and what is viewable only runs through July 14. (STAT has a good explainer on what this all means for outbreak response.)
Georgia Governor Brian Kemp is suing the city of Atlanta, where Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms required residents to wear face coverings in public. In an executive order this week, Kemp specifically prohibited local governments across the state from mandating face masks. He argues Bottoms is violating that order and overstepping her authority. Appearing on CNN today, Bottoms said Kemp’s suit puts Atlantans’ lives at risk. "This is about the lives of people,” she said. “And the people in my city are dying. The people in our state are dying." Georgia has recorded 121,000 cases and just over 3,000 deaths so far.
Most U.S. cruise ships will stay docked until at least September 30, after the CDC extended a “no sail” order on vessels that hold at least 250 passengers, in hopes of preventing coronavirus outbreaks on board. Cruise ships, where passengers and crew are often placed in tight quarters and social distancing is next to impossible, were the site of many early outbreaks.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of July 17, 1 AM eastern time. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
With Gyms Closed, Could We Actually Wind Up Healthier?
As many gyms and fitness studios remain closed during the COVID-19 pandemic, Americans are getting creative in the ways they exercise. That could bring lasting benefits for the nation’s health. Read more here.
NIH Director: Early COVID-19 Vaccine Results Look ‘Really Encouraging’
Francis Collins, the leader of the National Institutes of Health, said during a TIME 100 Talk yesterday that early data out of COVID-19 vaccine trials make him cautiously optimistic that one may be available for at least some recipients by the end of the year. Read more here.
Remembering a Loving Father and Avid Karaoke Fan
After Kristin Urquiza lost her 65-year-old father, Mark Anthony Urquiza, to COVID-19, she wrote him an obituary in the Arizona Republic, calling out the political leaders who she blamed for his death. Here, she remembers her late father, who loved singing Beatles songs at karaoke outings. Read more here.
Coronavirus Is Exacerbating Humanitarian Issues in Syria
The Syrian civil war has devastated Idlib, a rebel-held territory in the northwest part of the country. Nearly a decade of conflict has wiped out the area’s health care system—and now that the virus has arrived in the region, the situation promises only to get worse, Vox reports. Read more here.
It’s Okay to Say No
The pandemic has bred a slew of new social anxieties—including how to gracefully turn down invitations for gatherings you feel are unsafe. Writing for the New York Times, Anna Goldfarb has good advice for people-pleasers struggling to say no. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jamie Ducharme and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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