After possible exposure to COVID-19, the waiting begins.
An infected person could reasonably expect to see symptoms about five days after the exposure occurred, but it wouldn’t be unusual for it to take up to two weeks. From there, if it’s a serious case, approximately a week typically passes before things get bad enough to require hospitalization. And once a person lands in the hospital, it could take them a week or more to recover (if things go well) or die (if they don’t). All told, roughly a month could pass between the time someone gets infected with COVID-19 and the moment it takes their life.
This is a long way of saying what my colleague Tara Law wrote about in her latest piece: COVID-19 deaths are a lagging indicator of how bad an outbreak really is. Even though coronavirus case counts are surging in many parts of the U.S., we haven’t yet seen a huge jump in daily fatalities. The key word in that sentence is “yet”—because where cases rise, deaths historically follow.
Vice President Mike Pence ignored this reality when he said, during a coronavirus task force meeting on June 26, that Americans could “take some comfort in the fact that fatalities are declining.” With daily case counts rising to record levels, there are worrying signs that deaths are next. For example, deaths are steadily rising in Texas, a current COVID-19 hotspot. Recent days have also brought a spike in hospitalizations there, which suggests even more fatalities are coming.
Indeed, this spring, when New York was the country’s coronavirus epicenter, rises in hospitalizations there accurately predicted later increases in deaths. We’ve made some strides in coronavirus care since then, but not enough to think things will play out much differently in Texas and other hotspots. Unfortunately, the data suggest Texas, Florida and other high-transmission states will soon experience the tragedy that rocked New York all spring. It’s just a question of when.
More than 11.6 million people around the world had been sickened by COVID-19 as of 1 AM eastern time this morning, and more than 538,000 people had died.
Here is every country with over 200,000 confirmed cases:
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who has repeatedly downplayed the risks of COVID-19, tested positive for the virus today after developing symptoms including a cough and fever. He has reportedly been taking hydroxychloroquine, the same drug U.S. President Donald Trump touted as a possible COVID-19 cure before the claim was widely discredited in scientific papers.
In Italy, authorities are considering taking the dramatic step of mandating health care for people with COVID-19, The Guardian reports. The possibility arose after a man with COVID-19 symptoms resisted medical care, then went on to infect a cluster of people after attending a funeral and a birthday party.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. is edging closer to 3 million coronavirus infections, with more than 2.9 million recorded as of 1 AM eastern time this morning. More than 130,000 people had died as of that time.
On July 6, there were 44,953 new cases and 325 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Signs of COVID-19’s renewed surge in the U.S. are everywhere. Hospitals in Florida, Texas and Arizona are nearing capacity. Personal protective equipment is running short . In Atlanta, Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms tested positive for the virus despite being asymptomatic. People in some hotspots are waiting hours on end to get tested—if they can get tested at all.
Meanwhile, President Trump is planning to host another campaign rally, this time in Portsmouth, N.H. The event will be held outdoors, and wearing masks is “strongly encouraged,” according to organizers.
In other political news, companies linked to Trump and his associates were among those that received loans—some worth millions of dollars—under the Paycheck Protection Program, the Associated Press reports. While many coronavirus relief programs excluded the President and top officials, the PPP did not; the Small Business Administration even waived ethical standards that would have required these individuals to seek specific approvals if they requested aid.
Similarly, a new report from the watchdog group Public Citizen suggests dozens of lobbyists with ties to Trump helped their clients cumulatively collect more than $10 billion in federal coronavirus aid.
Finally, as colleges fine-tune their plans for the fall semester, many are facing backlash for asking students to pay full tuition for entirely or heavily remote courseloads. Harvard University, for example, will only let 40% of its undergraduate students back on campus in the fall, but will expect the entire student body to pay the regular tuition of roughly $50,000.
Georgia’s public university system drew criticism for a different reason: a reopening plan that said students would be encouraged, but not required, to wear masks on campus. The university system, which includes 26 colleges, reversed its decision yesterday, saying masks will be compulsory inside buildings.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of July 7, 1 AM eastern time. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Scientists Are Pushing Back On the WHO
There’s been an unusual amount of discord between the World Health Organization and the rest of the public-health community throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. In the latest episode, 239 scientists are calling on the WHO to recognize the risk of coronavirus spreading through the air. Read more here.
Heartburn Drugs Linked to COVID-19
Proton pump inhibitors, which are commonly used to treat heartburn, may increase a person’s risk of developing COVID-19, according to a new study. Read more here.
Obituary: Broadway Actor Nick Cordero
Broadway star Nick Cordero, who appeared in shows such as Bullets Over Broadway, died from coronavirus complications at age 41 on July 5—95 days after he first fell ill. Read his obituary here.
COVID Drugs Are for Sale On the Black Market
There’s a thriving black market in India for experimental drugs that show promise against COVID-19, including remdesivir and tocilizumab. The BBC reports on the great lengths, and exorbitant prices, people are willing to face to get the drugs. Read more here.
Coronavirus Experts Are Not Okay
After months of sleep deprivation, stress and sadness, the country’s coronavirus experts are deeply burned out. The Atlantic’s Ed Yong has the troubling story. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jamie Ducharme and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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