On Jan. 20, 2020, scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed the first case of COVID-19 in the U.S. At the time, we had no hint of the devastation to come—more than 24 million infected, 400,000 dead, and schools, businesses, sports events and indeed our entire economy hinging on the vagaries of a virus we can't even see. Many, including then-President Donald Trump, believed that the novel coronavirus would eventually peter out and disappear.
But as cases started to mount around the world, especially in China and Europe, it became clear that this virus, and the disease it caused, wasn't simply like a "bad flu" as Trump repeatedly claimed. It had pandemic potential. The response then should have been to put aside politics and marshall the widely admired, and well-proven ability of U.S. public health experts in protecting Americans against—and defeating—this common enemy. But instead, from day one, our energies were diverted by the Trump administration's refusal to take the virus seriously, and ultimately shunt responsibility for that underestimation.
Rather than pouring government attention and resources into developing and scaling up testing to detect the disease—one of the first and possibly strongest ways to stop the virus—health officials were sidetracked by having to stamp out the constant fires of misinformation and unscientific claims about the virus fueled by Trump's tweets and conflagrated by his supporters at the state level. By dismissing the seriousness of COVID-19 last spring, the White House slowed down efforts to quickly develop tests to detect the virus, which in turn enabled it to spread throughout the nation unchecked. By contrast, during the SARS outbreak of 2002, then-CDC director Dr. Julie Gerberding said U.S. researchers had a test for that virus in hand before the first case entered the country.
The delay in widespread and effective testing for COVID-19 set off a cascade of events that put the U.S. response so far behind that we're still playing catch up. Yes, in the past year we have approved an antiviral drug to treat COVID-19, and have two authorized vaccines (with a handful more on the way). But those victories were won despite, and not because of, the White House. Instead of making COVID-19 the top priority for all arms of government, the Trump Administration diluted the nation's attention and resources with political infighting and misinformation campaigns. He commandeered briefings about the pandemic, stealing away the only time that people could hear from scientists on the front lines of fighting the disease and instead planting misleading ideas and encouraging dangerous behaviors. Last April, he notoriously mused during one of those briefings about the benefits of bleach and sunlight in killing the virus, leading to several tragic deaths after desperate and fearful people decided to ingest bleach to protect themselves from getting sick. Instead of supporting leading experts when they advised the public to wear masks to prevent the spread of the virus, Trump questioned that advice and seeded mistrust of the science and scientists.
After the first wave of cases last spring, Trump pushed to reopen businesses against the advice of experts who warned it was too soon, and before long, the virus surged again, this time in even more parts of the country. Even after Trump himself was diagnosed with COVID-19 and hospitalized, he continued to downplay the gravity of the disease, tweeting "Don't be afraid of Covid. Don't let it dominate your life." And in the final days of his presidency, Trump used the sideshow of unfounded allegations of voter fraud to divert our attention from the disaster compounding around us.
If even a fraction of the energy that the Trump Administration spent in misleading the public on COVID-19 had been funneled toward science-based messages and recommendations, where might the U.S. be in its fight against COVID-19?
Today, Joe Biden became the new president of the U.S. And his administration might give us an answer to that question. Already, Biden has put public health ahead of politics: recognizing that large public gatherings can trigger the spread of COVID-19, he chose to be inaugurated in front of 200,000 flags, representing supporters he did not want to put at risk of infection. His newly appointed CDC director, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, promises regular public briefings and more transparency about the latest COVID-19 science. And Biden and his health team have pledged to right the wrongs of the past year and speed the rollout of vaccines as the first, critical step toward reopening society and returning us to a sense of normalcy.
All of those efforts point toward one, critical goal: earning back the trust of the American people. Without that, there may be vaccines but no vaccinations as people remain skittish about getting the shot, and without vaccinations, there will be no herd immunity that serves as a human wall of defense against the coronavirus. One year from today, let's hope that trust—in science, scientists and our political leadership—is strong enough to finally keep the virus under control. We can't afford another year like the last one.
While 28.4 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this morning, only about 13.6 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker—representing 4.1% of the overall U.S. population.
The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine seems to be just as effective against the new and more transmissible B.1.1.7 coronavirus variant as it is against the original form of the bug, according to data from the companies published today, STAT reports. The study, which has yet to be peer reviewed, provides early evidence that the vaccine can neutralize the variant, which was first identified in the U.K. More research is needed to determine the vaccine's efficacy against other variants, such as those emerging in Brazil and South Africa.
Some Chinese scientists and experts are attempting to discredit the two vaccines so far authorized for use in the U.S., the Washington Post reports. Their campaign is an effort to sow doubt among the American public about the shots—made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna—as well as deflect attention from recent studies showing disappointing efficacy results for Chinese-made vaccines. The World Health Organization, meanwhile, has sent a team to China to investigate the origins of the virus in Wuhan.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 96.1 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 p.m. E.T. today, and more than 2 million people have died. On Jan. 19, there were 608,286 new cases and 17,108 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here is every country with over 1.5 million confirmed cases:
Hospitals in the Brazilian state of Amazonas may run out of medical oxygen in just a few days if the number of COVID-19 patients keeps rising there, Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders) said today, CNN reports. "The number of new patients continues to grow faster and faster, showing how the entire health care system is saturated and overloaded," MSF said in a statement. "There is nowhere to transfer the most seriously ill patients." Brazil has the third-highest number of cases of any country, with more than 8.5 million since the start of the pandemic, and the second-highest death count, with about 211,000. A new variant of the coronavirus may be driving greater transmission in the region, my colleague Ciara Nugent reports.
Dublin's St. Patrick's Day Parade was canceled today for the second consecutive year because of the pandemic, organizers announced. A six-day virtual event will take its place. More than 176,800 people in Ireland have tested positive for COVID-19 since the beginning of the pandemic, and 2,708 have died.
The Vatican began vaccinating homeless people aged 60 and over in Rome today, Vatican News reports. The vaccination program in the Vatican began last week, starting with health care workers, the elderly—and, of course, Pope Francis.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 24.2 million coronavirus cases as of 1 p.m. E.T. today. More than 401,000 people have died. On Jan. 19, there were 177,256 new cases and 2,769 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
And here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents.
In his first day in office, President Joe Biden is expected to issue an executive order asking Americans to wear a mask for 100 days and mandating face coverings on federal property, CNN reports. Though the President can't require cities or states to mandate mask-wearing, he can require their use on federal lands. The move symbolizes an executive embrace of CDC guidance and a departure from the Trump Administration.
New York City will run out of vaccine doses on Thursday and will have to cancel appointments until the federal government supplies more doses, the New York Timesreports. Additional doses are expected to arrive next week. While public hospitals and private clinics will continue vaccinations, the city's department of health will close its 15 vaccination hubs on Thursday and Friday because of the shortage, and about 22,000 appointments will be rescheduled for next week, councilmember Mark Levine said.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Jan. 20, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Why Some COVID-19 Cases May Be Worse Than Others
Rogue antibodies may be responsible for some of the worst cases of COVID-19, writes Roxanne Khamsi for Nature. These so-called autoantibodies seem to dampen the immune system's defense against infection, and some people might be more predisposed to producing them than others. Read more here.
Do I Have to Wear a Mask After Getting Vaccinated?
Those fortunate enough to have received both doses of coronavirus vaccine are left wondering: do I still have to wear a mask? Until we know the answer to the million-dollar question—how effective vaccines are at preventing the spread of infection, not just symptomatic disease—you need to keep masking up, writes Dr. James Hamblin of The Atlantic. Read more here.
Like the Vaccine, Antibody Treatments Are a Hot Commodity With Dismal Distribution
Most of the available COVID-19 monoclonal antibody treatments have not been used, in part because it's hard for patients to actually access them, reports JoNel Aleccia for Kaiser Health News. Finding a distribution site is one hurdle, while patients and their families are usually forced to find their own path to treatment. Read more here.
—Mandy Oaklander
Correction: Due to an editing error, yesterday's issue of The Coronavirus Brief misstated the number of recent COVID-19 deaths in California. There have been between .5 and 1.7 COVID-19 daily deaths per capita in California over the last week, not between 70 and nearly 120.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Alice Park and Mandy Oaklander, and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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