We Can't Afford to Wait for the Vaccine to Stop COVID-19
Effective vaccines are here. Eligibility and supply expand by the week. There's light at the end of the tunnel. But the grim reality is that right now, we are in the darkest days of the pandemic. Yesterday, the U.S. set a new record for deaths in a single day; more than 4,300 people died, a tally that was once unthinkable. As a new, highly transmissible variant of the coronavirus continues to spread across the country, and hospitals remain overwhelmed, the case count and death toll will only grow higher.
We can't afford to become numb to these harrowing figures as we wait for the vaccine to save us, Dr. Gavin Yamey, a physician and professor of global health and public policy at Duke University, writes in a new column for TIME. Too many people will die in the meantime if nothing changes; the goal of achieving herd immunity by vaccination is simply too far off.
But tools exist to help drive down transmission and staunch the loss of life, and we should finally start using them, Yamey writes.
First, every American should be given high-filtration masks, like N95 respirators, Yamey writes. These have been shown to be more effective at filtering out the virus than cloth and surgical masks, but have so far been mostly unavailable to the general population because of shortages. The government can ensure adequate supply by invoking the Defense Production Act for these masks—not just for health care workers, but for everyone.
Furthermore, Yamey says we must better protect all essential workers, from those who work in hospitals to others in grocery stores and warehouses, with PPE and well-ventilated workplaces. Better ventilation is also key to safely mitigating the spread of the virus in schools, many of which continue to offer at least some in-person learning.
Fortunately, some parts of the world, including Australia, Taiwan, New Zealand and Singapore, have already controlled the virus and could be models for the U.S. to emulate. All of them use contact tracing, a tool the U.S. has mostly ignored or underfunded. One step, Yamey writes, would be to compensate the lost wages of anyone who must quarantine or isolate from others—that would make people more likely to respond honestly and in a timely fashion to contact tracers. Another key similarity among the successful countries? They have better testing regimes. Rapid antigen testing in the U.S. can help make schools and workplaces safer by identifying asymptomatic people, Yamey says.
These strategies aren't new. Implementing them earlier would likely have led to a very different reality—one not entirely dependent on vaccines to save us. But the U.S. must finally take these steps. Just as vaccines on a shelf are useless until they're injected into the arms of Americans, proven strategies only work when they're used.
While 24.1 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this morning, only 8.4 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker—representing 2.5% of the overall U.S. population.
Indonesia's vaccine rollout began on live TV this morning, as President Joko Widodo became the first in the nation to get the shot, Bloomberg reports. He received China's Sinovac Biotech vaccine, as will others across Indonesia. But questions are swirling about the efficacy of the Chinese vaccine, since published data are scant and clinical trials in different countries have shown variable levels of effectiveness—with the latest, largest data set suggesting an efficacy rate of only about 50%.
The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine may curb infections by about half just 14 days after the first shot, an Israeli health ministry official said yesterday, the Times of Israel reports. The data are preliminary—and, in fact, two other figures released recently by Israeli health organizations suggest that risk of infection two weeks after the first shot drops by either 33% or 60%. But any drop in infection is still encouraging news. Israel has already vaccinated about 20% of its population, and that real-world data offers a glimpse into how well the shots may be working. However, the virus is still spreading quickly in Israel, and 17% of new cases yesterday occurred in people who have received one dose, a health ministry official said.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 91.5 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 1.9 million people have died. On Jan. 12, there were 694,482 new cases and 17,186 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents: And here is every country with over 1.5 million confirmed cases:
The Tokyo Olympic Games will be held this summer at any cost, even as it looks increasingly unlikely that the pandemic will be well controlled around the world by that point, my colleague Charlie Campbell reports. Having to push back the 2020 games was a devastating blow to Japan, and the new dates—July 23 to Aug. 8, 2021—are now non-negotiable to leaders there. But the challenges of hosting a massive international event during a pandemic are many (Japan likely won't roll out vaccines until March) and so far, Olympic officials have not provided a plan. Tokyo is currently under a state of emergency; restaurants and bars are encouraged to close by 8 p.m. and businesses are urged to allow 70% of employees to work from home, among other restrictions. Today, Japan extended the warning to seven more prefectures, including Osaka and Kyoto, the New York Timesreports.
Today, the U.K. reported a record high number of single-day deaths—1,564—among people who received a positive test within four weeks prior to dying, my colleagues Ciara Nugent and Suyin Hayes report. The new variant circulating there, which is up to 70% more transmissible, is a key reason for the emergence of a devastating third wave of COVID-19 in the country. Health care workers are calling the U.K. situation "unimaginably bad," as some hospitals have run out of bed space and even oxygen. One new study published today shows that critical care staff are also being stretched too thin, with many staff reporting symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and anxiety.
When hospitals fill up and become overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients, those who can't get admitted suffer— but so do coronavirus patients already receiving treatment. In hospitals where every bed is full, COVID-19 patients have a 92% increased risk of death from the disease, according to a pre-print study by U.K. researchers published today on MedRxiv, Vox reports. Another new pre-print study from researchers in Israel also found that the mortality rate rises among COVID-19 patients in these circumstances. The pair of international papers (which still need to be peer reviewed) suggest that even though medical advances to treat the disease have been significant, a strained workforce with dwindling resources can quickly undo these gains.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 22.8 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 380,000 people have died. On Jan. 12, there were 215,805 new cases and 4,327 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
And here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents: At least 10% of Congress has had the virus since the pandemic began, the New York Timesreports. Of the 60 members who have tested positive or are believed to have been infected, 44 are Republicans and 16 are Democrats. Five of those cases were reported in the last week, following the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, when lawmakers had to huddle together in an undisclosed location and some refused to wear masks.
Moncef Slaoui, chief advisor of the Trump Administration's Operation Warp Speed, has resigned at the request of the soon-to-be Biden administration, but will stay on for a month to consult through the presidential transition, CNBC reports. Slaoui was in charge of coronavirus vaccine development for OWS, and under his lead, two vaccines gained emergency authorization. But he's also been criticized for his ties to pharmaceutical companies and for the slow initial vaccine rollout. It's unclear who will take the reins as the next scientific lead for the government's COVID-19 response.
As vaccines become more widely available across the U.S., expect to see companies offer incentives to their employees for getting vaccinated. Dollar General is one of the first to do so, the Wall Street Journalreports, giving employees four hours of paid time off as long as they get a vaccine. Incentives help employees overcome relevant barriers, like taking time off. Dollar General will also offer extra paid time off to employees who have an adverse reaction to the shots.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Jan. 13, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Egg Freezing Is Hot During the Pandemic
Fertility clinics across the country have experienced a marked uptick in egg freezing clientele during the pandemic, my colleague Eliana Dockterman reports. The increase surprised many in the industry, since fertility treatments had been suspended in the early months. But freer schedules—and plenty of time for reflection—have led to an increase more recently. Read more here.
The Vaccine Rollout May Create Some Political Stars
As governors across the U.S. figure out how to distribute the two federally authorized vaccines, those who perform well will likely reap favor among constituents and voters. Politico's Joanne Kenen analyzes the political fortunes at stake. Read more here.
Junk Food Makes COVID-19 More Dangerous
Americans are addicted to processed foods laden with sugar, fat and salt. And poor diet, which often leads to obesity, is one reason why Americans have such deadly outcomes from COVID-19, writes Tom Philpott of Mother Jones. Promoting healthier food choices can help fight chronic diseases like obesity—as well as protect people from the worst effects of acute ones, like COVID-19. Read more here.
How to De-Stress Without Stepping Outside
COVID-19 has forced many of us to spend more time at home than usual, and being trapped inside only aggravates rising stress levels. Harvard Business Review offers seven ways to unwind without going outdoors, including breathing deeply, journaling and blowing bubbles. Read more here.
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Today's newsletter was written by Mandy Oaklander and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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