A quick glance at the latest U.S. coronavirus numbers suggest that maybe, just maybe, it's time to breathe a sigh of relief. The number of daily new cases is down nationwide, while hospitalizations are falling as well. It's easy to think that mass vaccination efforts across the country are to thank for these signs of hope—too easy, unfortunately.
It's more likely that these promising dips are the result of a "plateauing" effect following the holidays. Put simply: gatherings around Christmas and New Year's led to a dramatic spike in new cases (and later, deaths and hospitalizations), but now those events are far enough behind us that their effect is wearing off in the data. While the numbers are falling, they're falling from a very high place, and remain much too high—between 1,403 and 4,375 people in the U.S. have died of COVID-19 each day over the past seven days, for a total of 21,614 deaths in just a single week, or slightly more than the capacity of Madison Square Garden. Hundreds of thousands of new cases, meanwhile, are reported every day.
"The rate of new infections remains five times higher than at the end of the summer," says TIME's Chris Wilson, our in-house coronavirus data expert, who adds that colder weather and new, more transmissible strains likely contributed to the recent surge. "If one were to think of the number of cases reported since January 2020 as total miles traveled on a long car trip, then the rate of new infections is analogous to the vehicle’s speed at any given time. When the rate is increasing, the driver is stepping on the gas. When it is coming down, the driver is at least tapping the brakes. While the COVID car is currently reducing speed, it remains at a dangerously fast clip that is very far from the goal of coming to a complete rest."
It makes sense that vaccinations wouldn't be having much of an impact yet. First, we're only a few weeks into our mass inoculation efforts, and it takes time—and two doses of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines—for recipients to gain maximum protection. Second, the rollout has been confused and sluggish at best, with only about 5.6% of the U.S. population vaccinated so far. While many of those lucky enough to have already received the shot are among the most vulnerable groups (which should drive down hospitalizations and deaths), it's still pretty early in the process for inoculations to be having a big impact on the overall trends.
This isn't just to be a downer. If people misinterpret the positive signs in the data, it could lead them to prematurely drop their guard, potentially triggering yet another upswing. "We don't want to get complacent and think, 'oh, things are going in the right direction, we can pull back a bit,'" Dr. Anthony Fauci said on NBC's TODAY show this morning.
The takeaway is this: any drop in the number of coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths is good news. But what we're seeing in the data now will not necessarily become a long-lasting and significant downward trend all on its own. To keep the numbers headed in the right direction—even when vaccines are more widely available—we all need to keep social distancing, wearing a mask, and so on for a little while longer. The more we all do that, the sooner this will all be behind us—especially as vaccination efforts ramp up over the coming weeks and months.
VACCINE TRACKER
While 32.7 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this morning, only about 18.5 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker—representing 5.6% of the overall U.S. population.
Pharmaceutical company Merck is throwing in the towel on two of its vaccine candidates, which it says failed to produce an adequate immune response in Phase 1 trials. While the news is a setback for vaccination efforts—the more effective vaccines, the merrier—the company says it will continue work on treatments for patients who have already contracted COVID-19. If more effective therapies can be quickly produced, it could help bridge the gap between the pandemic and normal life as vaccination efforts continue.
In somewhat better news, another pharma giant, Moderna, says its vaccine appears effective against two new variants of the virus that were first identified in the U.K. and South Africa, though it's less effective against the latter. Still, the company is working on a booster shot designed specifically to deal with the South African variant, just in case it winds up being needed.
The European Union could greenlight the AstraZeneca-Oxford coronavirus vaccine later this week, according to German health official Hanno Kautz, CNN reports. But that news comes after AstraZeneca said it may not be able to deliver doses to European countries until after March.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 99.1 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 2.1 million people have died. On Jan. 24, there were 447,423 new cases and 8,791 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here is every country with over 1.5 million confirmed cases:
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has tested positive for COVID-19, joining a growing list of world leaders who have contracted the disease. Like former U.S. President Trump, López Obrador, 67, has been criticized both for his macro-level handling of his country's outbreak, as well as his laissez-faire approach to personal public health practices. Mexico has reported more than 1.7 million cases of coronavirus, as well as nearly 150,000 deaths.
Austrian officials are now requiring people to wear medical-grade masks while on public transportation or in shops. Such masks were in short supply earlier in the pandemic—forcing many to turn to cloth masks to preserve supply for medical workers and others at high risk—and they are still, in some places. But research has shown they can reduce viral spread more effectively than cloth varieties.
U.K. lawmakers are demanding clarity amid rumors that Prime Minister Boris Johnson's administration will keep schools shuttered there even after Easter, CNN reports. "We know the significant damage this is doing to children in terms of mental health, educational attainment, safeguarding hazards and their general wellbeing," one Conservative lawmaker, Robert Halfon, told Sky News today.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 25.1 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 419,000 people have died. On Jan. 24, there were 132,537 new cases and 1,775 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
President Joe Biden is banning most non-U.S. citizens from traveling to the U.S. from South Africa, where an alarming new coronavirus variant has been spreading. Biden is also extending a similar ban on travel from the U.K., Ireland, and many other European countries. Meanwhile, beginning today, all air passengers arriving in the U.S. will be required to show their airline proof of a negative COVID-19 test taken within three days of boarding their flight into the states.
Google Maps will soon show users the location of nearby COVID-19 vaccination hubs, the company announced today. Arizona, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas will get the feature first, with "more states and countries to come." The app will show if each site requires an appointment, relevant eligibility rules, and more.
Basketball's Miami Heat will deploy dogs trained to sniff out cases of COVID-19 to help prevent infected fans from attending upcoming games, the Associated Press reports. The technique was pioneered at European airports, though it's challenging to scale, as it takes considerable time and effort to train the pups to do the work reliably. But the dogs won't have to work too hard: only 2,000 fans will be allowed to watch Heat games in person for now, just a fraction of their arena's max capacity.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Jan. 25, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
The Pandemic Is Causing a 'She-cession.' Here's How to Fix an Unequal System
Women have lost a disproportionate number of jobs in recent months as the virus decimated sectors like hospitality and restaurants, in which women make up the majority of the workforce. But Bonnie Hammer, vice chairman of NBC Universal, writes in TIME that the crisis has given us an opportunity to "fix a system that was broken long before the pandemic, rebuild an economy that finally works for working women, and shatter the glass ceiling—and bubble—for good." Read more here.
How West Virginia Become a Vaccination Leader
West Virginia is leading all U.S. states in terms of how quickly it's administering the doses it receives from the federal government. But it's hamstrung by the slow pace of vaccine deliveries, the New York Times reports. Read more here.
The Secret to Getting a Vaccine Appointment
The trick to locking down a vaccination slot is having somebody in your life who speaks English, is computer fluent, and has plenty of free time on their hands, says writer Anne Helen Petersen—and that's a big problem for ensuring equal distribution. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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