Reasons for Hope and Reasons for Concern as We Start the New Year
Good afternoon, and welcome to 2021—where, I’m sorry to say, the COVID-19 pandemic hasn’t faded away simply because the calendar has flipped from December to January. But in the spirit of starting off the year on a high note, let’s examine the myriad reasons to justify a little optimism as the new year begins:
Multiple, highly effective vaccines are being approved by health agencies around the world. The Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccines were developed, proven safe and effective, and approved at record speed. Each has its own advantages and disadvantages, but together, they represent seriously heavy weaponry in the global fight against the coronavirus. Vaccinations have already begun in many countries, marking the beginning of the end of the pandemic.
Some countries are making remarkable progress with their vaccination campaigns. Israel, for example, has already vaccinated 12% of its population, while the U.S. has only vaccinated around 1%. (Of course, Israel has a far smaller population—nearly 9 million, compared to nearly 330 million in the U.S.—and leaders there have been criticized for failing to offer vaccines to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.)
Here in the U.S., we’re just weeks away from a new Administration. When President Donald Trump mentions the coronavirus these days, it’s usually only to take credit for funding vaccine development, production and distribution via Operation Warp Speed or to deflect blame for issues with the U.S. vaccination strategy. But it’s clear his focus in recent weeks has not been the pandemic, but rather overturning the results of November’s election. When President-elect Joe Biden takes office on Jan. 20, it will mark the start of a fresh approach to COVID-19.
Still, after having left for holiday break in (relatively) optimistic spirits where the pandemic is concerned, catching up on recent developments has poured some cold water on all that. Here’s what’s on my mind now:
We aren’t vaccinating people fast enough. In the U.S., OWS officials promised that 20 million Americans would receive their first dose of vaccine by the end of 2020. We’ve missed that mark by roughly 17 million. Administration, rather than distribution, is the problem here—doses are being delivered, but they’re not getting injected into people’s arms. Myriad causes are to blame, from inadequate preparation and funding at all levels of government to simple (but no less preventable or predictable) scheduling issues over the holiday season.
An alarming new mutation, called B117, is spreading around the world. Viruses mutate all the time, often with no significant consequences for humanity. But this new variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, appears significantly more contagious than past incarnations. While it doesn’t yet seem to cause more severe disease, a more infectious virus is all but certain to reach more people and drive up positivity rates, hospitalizations, and deaths. In the U.K., where the mutation was first detected, the 7-day average of daily new cases has skyrocketed despite ongoing lockdown measures. B117 has been detected in dozens of other countries, including the U.S.
Vaccine skepticism remains a major concern. While overall vaccine hesitancy in the U.S. has decreased as vaccines actually became available, there are worrying signs that, even if the vaccine were widely and easily accessible right now, we may not be able to convince enough people to get the shot. About 20% of Americans say they’ll never get vaccinated, per Pew, while a disturbing number of medical professionals are also turning down their early chance. And in an utterly stomach-churning episode, a Wisconsin hospital worker has been arrested after allegedly intentionally ruining more than 500 doses of vaccine—doses that, if properly administered, could have saved lives.
So, as we head into 2021, it’s clear that the cognitive dissonance of the pandemic era will continue—there will be good news and bad, both on the big-picture and personal levels. Make no mistake: I would rather be here, with vaccines and science and understanding, rather than back in March, when the ambulance wails seemed to go on forever and we weren’t sure if a quick trip to the grocery store would kill us. The holidays were hard, yes—I’m missing friends and family and travel more than ever, personally. But there’s work to be done, and we all need to do our part to keep ourselves and our neighbors safe just a little bit longer. To fortify myself for what’s ahead, I’m going into the year with this new mantra: every day, we’re getting closer to the end than the beginning.
VACCINE TRACKER
Health officials in the U.K. are calling a bold but risky audible in their vaccine rollout: extending the amount of time between recipients’ doses from roughly three weeks to as many as three months, STAT reports. The shift is intended to give as many people at least one dose as possible, and is based on data showing that even a single dose confers some protection (though not as much as two doses). However, none of the vaccine trials were designed to test such lengthy delays between doses, so it’s possible the move could leave recipients less protected even after they receive their second (delayed) dose. Some experts are advocating for a similar plan in the U.S., while others are calling for a kind of middle-ground approach: rather than set aside some doses for recipients’ second shots as we’re currently doing, we should be administering doses as soon as they’re available and trusting that second doses will be available when needed.
Also in the U.K., health workers there began administering the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine this morning, with more than a half-million doses ready to be given out. "The nurses, doctors and staff today have all been brilliant and I can now really look forward to celebrating my 48th wedding anniversary with my wife Shirley later this year,” said 82-year-old Brian Pinker, the first U.K. resident to get the AstraZeneca vaccine, per the BBC.
Regulators in India, one of the world’s hardest-hit countries, have approved two COVID-19 vaccines for use in the country: The AstraZeneca-Oxford University shot, as well a homegrown option from Indian pharma firm Bharat Biotech. However, some experts are questioning the Bharat vaccine, arguing that the data were insufficient to merit the green light.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 85.1 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 1.8 million people have died. On Jan. 3, there were 535,176 new cases and 7,347 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here is every country with over 1.5 million confirmed cases:
Despite the aforementioned AstraZeneca vaccine rollout, the U.K. is headed back into national lockdown, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced today. Schools and universities will close and shift entirely to remote learning, non-essential stores will be closed and indoor dining will be off the table. However, churches, temples and other places of worship can remain open, as can playgrounds. Johnson’s move comes as his country hit a new peak of daily new cases yesterday, with a 7-day average of 81.9 per 100,000 residents.
Officials in Tokyo, which last week set a new daily record of 1,337 cases, are ordering restaurants and bars to close by 8 p.m. to curb the spread of the virus, the New York Timesreports. Public transportation service will also be curtailed, and leaders are asking businesses and schools to let employees and students work or learn from home wherever possible. “We should clearly recognize that the infection situation is in a completely different stage,” said Governor Yuriko Koike in a statement.
German police are having a tough time keeping skiers off the slopes despite ongoing coronavirus lockdowns, CNN reports, with hundreds of violations issued over the weekend. While skiing can be a relatively safe way to get some fresh air and exercise amid the pandemic, crowded ski lodges and lift lines can be a problem. As with the U.K., the situation in Germany continues to deteriorate despite lockdown measures; the country hit a peak of 30.7 average new daily cases per 100,000 residents on Dec. 20.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 20.6 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 351,000 people have died. On Jan. 3, there were 201,479 new cases and 1,394 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
And here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
In a CNN interview , Moncef Slaoui, leader of the White House’s Operation Warp Speed project, acknowledged that OWS has failed to meet its goal of 20 million vaccinations by the end of 2020, and promised to do more. “I wish we had vaccinated 20 million, obviously,” he said. “We worked day and night to have these vaccines available and we will continue to work day and night to have them immunized."
1,327,289 travelers passed through TSA checkpoints yesterday, the highest one-day number since the pandemic began. While that’s still just over half the number on the same day last year, it suggests that many people ignored public health experts’ pleas to skip holiday travel this year in order to avoid spreading COVID-19. That a new, more infectious variant of the virus has already been detected in the U.S. is adding to concerns that nationwide travel could have exacerbated viral spread.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Jan. 4, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
The Mutated Virus Is a Ticking Time Bomb
Writing in The Atlantic, scholar Zeynep Tufekci explains why the new SARS-CoV-2 variant—which appears more transmissible but not necessarily more deadly—is more dangerous than a mutation that’s no more transmissible but deadlier. “Increased transmissibility can wreak havoc in a very, very short time—especially when we already have uncontrolled spread in much of the United States,” she writes. Read more here.
Two D.C. Friends Went Shopping and Randomly Ended up Vaccinated
In what’s becoming something of a minor national trend, David MacMillan, a Washington, D.C. area law student, and his friend were given the Moderna vaccine while shopping at a local pharmacy by the store’s pharmacist, who otherwise would’ve had to discard the dose, NBC’s local affiliate reports. While it’s logical to administer doses rather than simply discard them, it’s unclear how people like MacMillan—who are not yet technically eligible to receive a vaccine—will get their second dose to complete their regimen. Read more here.
The Holocaust Stole My Youth. COVID-19 Is Stealing My Last Years
In a moving piece for the New York Times, Toby Levy, who survived the Holocaust as a child by hiding in a barn with her family, reflects on the differences between that horrific experience and today’s pandemic. “This is going to end, and I am already thinking, planning where I am going first, what I will do first, when this ends,” Levy writes. Read more here.
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Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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