The White House Voiced Support for Herd Immunity—a Strategy That Is Failing Miserably in Sweden
Only about 10% of Americans have contracted the virus that causes COVID-19 so far, experts believe. That’s far short of the percentage required for herd immunity, or the point at which enough members of a population have developed protective antibodies to a virus to keep it from spreading, which is believed to be about 70%. The upshot is that millions of Americans still remain vulnerable to the virus, which is now spreading across states like Montana, Nebraska and Wisconsin.
So far, the only way humanity has achieved herd immunity to an infectious disease has been through mass vaccination. But with a vaccine still months away at the earliest, some have been pushing a more dangerous strategy: mass infection. Top White House officials, for example, have anonymously supported a recent petition called the Great Barrington Declaration, the New York Times reports, which condemns lockdowns and calls for schools and businesses to open back up. “The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk," the declaration reads.
But eight months into the pandemic, it’s clear that herd immunity is hardly a winning plan. It certainly didn’t work for Sweden, according to new investigative reporting published in TIME. The writers—Andrew Ewing, a professor and scientist, and Kelly Bjorklund, a writer and activist—obtained damning internal government emails about Sweden’s strategy, leading them to conclude the plan all along was “to treat it as a foregone conclusion that many people would die." In one March email exchange about transmission and schools, for instance, Dr. Anders Tegnell, the epidemiologist in charge of Sweden’s pandemic response, wrote that keeping schools open would help the country reach herd immunity more quickly. When his Finnish counterpart, Mika Salminen, replied by pointing to a Finnish model that showed closing schools would reduce the infection rate among the elderly by 10%, Tegnell responded, “10% might be worth it?”
While many of its peer nations opted for a total lockdown early in the pandemic, Sweden kept most businesses and other organizations open. It enacted some restrictions, like limiting public gatherings to 50 people, but those rules didn’t apply to private events, schools, malls and other situations. Its testing and contact-tracing infrastructure still lag behind that of other wealthy European countries, and Sweden’s leaders still don’t encourage mask-wearing or quarantine. As a result, Sweden continues to endure high COVID-19 death rates, and herd immunity remains far out of reach.
“The Swedish way has yielded little but death and misery,” Bjorklund and Ewing write. “Sweden and the U.S. essentially make up a category of two,” they add. “They are the only countries with high overall mortality rates that have failed to rapidly reduce those numbers as the pandemic has progressed.”
More than 38 million people around the world had been infected by COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 1 million people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Oct. 13, there were 264,771 new cases and 4,731 new deaths confirmed globally. Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here is every country with over 400,000 confirmed cases to date ("per cap" is number per 100,000 people):
A top World Health Organization official said today that most coronavirus transmission is still happening within individual households. “Our advice is that if you test positive for COVID-19 that you're cared for in a medical facility,” said Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO's COVID-19 technical lead, in a Facebook Q&A. “We realize that that's not possible globally with so many cases that we are seeing. But it's important that if you're in a high-risk group—if you are over 60, if you have any underlying conditions—that you are cared for in a medical facility.”
Northern Ireland is going back into lockdown beginning Friday after reporting a record number of cases over the past 24 hours, officials there announced. The region has reported an average of about 900 new daily cases this week, compared to roughly 100 during its first wave, the New York Times reports. Schools will close for two weeks and indoor service at restaurants and pubs will close for a month, while shops can remain open.
Forty-four people who visited a spin studio in Hamilton, Ontario have contracted the virus, the city's medical officer of health said yesterday. Those infected individuals have spread it to friends, family and others; at least 61 people in total have fallen ill in connection with the studio outbreak, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation reports. The studio, SPINCO, says it followed public health regulations, keeping a six-foot distance between bikes, screening clients and enforcing mask-wearing before and after class (but not during spin sessions). "We took all the measures public health offered, even added a few, and still the pandemic struck us again!" reads an Instagram post from the company.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 7.8 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 215,800 people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Oct. 13, there were 52,406 new cases and 802 new deaths confirmed in the U.S. Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
U.S. President Donald Trump is no longer capable of spreading the virus, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “We feel confident that we can say with a high degree of confidence that he is not transmissible,” Fauci told the New York Times.
Small gatherings are driving viral spread throughout the country, the head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on a call with governors yesterday. "What we're seeing as the increasing threat right now is actually acquisition of infection through small household gatherings," said CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield, according to CNN, which obtained audio of the call. “Particularly with Thanksgiving coming up, we think it's really important to stress the vigilance of these continued mitigation steps in the household setting.”
Some college students may be intentionally contracting the virus in order to sell their antibody-filled plasma, according to Brigham Young University-Idaho. "The university condemns this behavior and is actively seeking evidence of any such conduct among our student body," reads a statement published this week on the school's website. "Students who are determined to have intentionally exposed themselves or others to the virus will be immediately suspended from the university and may be permanently dismissed."
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of October 14, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Mayor of Tennessee City Dies After COVID-19 Infection
Lonnie Norman, the mayor of Manchester, Tennessee—home to the Bonnaroo Music and Arts Festival—died this week after being hospitalized with the coronavirus. Norman, who became the city’s first Black mayor in 1991 and was elected again in 2012 until his death, was 79 years old. “To his fellow public officials, we say please remember your duty to keep the public safe,” reads a family statement. “To our fellow citizens, we say please wear a mask, practice physical distancing, and protect public health and each other.” Read more here.
Facebook Throws its Support Behind New Vaccine Efforts
Facebook announced yesterday that it’s taking new steps to promote vaccinations in the U.S. and around the world. The company will host a flu-vaccine information campaign, reject ads that discourage people from getting a vaccine and help global health organizations like UNICEF build public support for vaccines. Read more here.
After Trump Got Sick, His ‘Biggest Fan’ Went on a Hunger Strike and Died
When President Trump contracted the coronavirus, one fervent supporter—Bussa Krishna, a farmer in India who reportedly prayed to a Trump statue every morning—stopped eating to offer solidarity in suffering, according to the New York Times. Krishna became depressed afterward and died of cardiac arrest on Sunday. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Mandy Oaklander and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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