The coronavirus is once again raging across much of Europe. But as my colleague Madeleine Roache reports, two countries—Belgium and the Czech Republic—are bearing the brunt of the resurgence.
As of Oct. 25, Belgium and the Czech Republic are reporting about 146 and 115 new daily cases per 100,000 people respectively, according to TIME’s coronavirus tracker, which compiles data from Johns Hopkins University. That's dramatically higher than the E.U.-wide average of 33 per 100,000.
While experts said there’s no single unifying factor driving the dramatic spikes in Belgium and the Czech Republic, they do share some commonalities: both have relatively high population densities, both have recently reopened schools, and leaders in both have been criticized for failing to heed public health officials’ suggestions to reintroduce restrictions when cases first began rising a few weeks ago. Moreover, both countries failed to implement adequate testing and tracing systems before lifting restrictions over the summer. In the Czech Republic, only one in five users who test positive self-report their status on the contact tracing app eRouška (“eFacemask”). Belgium’s team of 2,000 contact tracers, meanwhile, has been unable to keep up with its rise in new infections.
Like leaders in many other European countries, officials in both Belgium and the Czech Republic are now implementing new restrictions to stem viral spread. In addition to closing bars, cafes and restaurants and banning cultural events in some areas, Belgium has suspended all non-urgent surgeries for a month to free up hospital capacity. The Czech Republic, meanwhile, has ordered bars, restaurants and non-essential stores to close and moved most schools back to remote learning.
However, it may be too late to avoid a catastrophic second wave, both in these countries and across Europe more broadly. As Martin Mckee, a professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told Madeleine, lockdowns are an “indication of policy failure, of not having driven the numbers down enough in the first wave and not putting in place a well-functioning test and trace system.”
More than 43.4 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 1.1 million people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Oct. 26, there were 493,261 new cases and 5,766 new deaths confirmed globally. Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here is every country with over 500,000 confirmed cases:
Poland is bracing for a possible wave of infections as a result of pro-choice demonstrations around the country, Reuters reports. The protests follow a ruling from the nation’s Constitutional Tribunal last week that declared nearly all abortions illegal nationwide. “These outbursts we are seeing in the streets should absolutely not be taking place,” said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawieck, who warned of “massive risks” from the gatherings. However, street protests in the U.S. over racial justice and other issues in recent months did not seem to cause notable viral spread.
Australia is a bright spot in the generally gloomy global news, with Victoria, a state with 6.3 million people, reporting no new coronavirus cases at all for the second day in a row, according to CNN. The turnaround is all the more remarkable because just two months ago Victoria Premier Daniel Andrews declared a state of disaster in the region, which became a troublesome hotspot over the summer. Lockdown restrictions across Victoria, which includes Melbourne, Australia’s second most populous city, are slowly being eased as the improvement continues.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 8.7 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 225,700 people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Oct. 26, there were 66,784 new cases and 477 new deaths confirmed in the U.S. Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Nearly half a million new coronavirus cases were added to the U.S. national total in just a single week amid the ongoing autumn surge, as CNN reports, citing figures from Johns Hopkins University. From Oct. 20 to today, 489,769 new infections were recorded, with daily totals averaging 69,967—the highest number since the start of the pandemic. The figures are no more encouraging at the state level. Thirty-seven states are seeing jumps of 10% or more in cases this week compared to last week, while 21 states hit their highest-yet seven-day average on Sunday. Children have not been spared, with pediatric infections rising 14% over the past two weeks. Not surprisingly, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is warning that parents should rethink their Halloween plans this year.
Kansas is offering researchers a real-time, in situ, study on the efficacy of masks in curbing viral spread, local newspaper Lawrence Journal-Worldreports. In July, governor Laura Kelly issued a statewide mask order, but state legislators allowed individual counties to opt out. Most of Kansas’s 105 counties did just that, but around two dozen ordered their residents to mask up. The result, according to a University of Kansas study: the infection rate in mask-mandatory counties grew at around half the state average—about 7 new daily cases per 100,000 people, compared to 14 statewide.
U.S. stock markets took a dive yesterday as investors reckon with the increasingly grim coronavirus picture—the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedded 650 points, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ both posted their worst days since September. Despite the disturbing public-health and economic trends, U.S. President Donald Trump declared at a rally in Allentown, Pa. yesterday—contrary to the facts—that the pandemic is “ending anyway. We are rounding the turn. It’s ending anyway.” Trump has maintained a frenetic campaign schedule of largely unmasked rallies, while Democratic nominee Joe Biden held a single event yesterday in a Philadelphia suburb, during which he called Trump “the worst possible President...to try to lead us through this pandemic.” Meanwhile, a release from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy published today includes "ending the COVID-19" pandemic among a list of Trump Administration achievements, despite clear evidence that the U.S outbreak is worsening, not improving.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of October 27, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
How the U.S. and Brazil Damaged Latin America’s COVID-19 Defenses
U.S. President Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro may be the parties most responsible for the surge of coronavirus across Latin America, per reporting in the New York Times today. The two leaders drove 10,000 Cuban doctors and nurses out of the region, nearly bankrupted the Pan American Health Organization, and pushed hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19, despite a lack of evidence. Read more here.
Masks Are Surprisingly Bipartisan
Despite what is widely painted as a blue-red divide on the wisdom of masks, there is surprising agreement about their efficacy—at least in the nation’s governors’ mansions. Of America’s 26 Republican governors, 21 have urged mask use, including those in so-called “ruby red” states like Alabama, Arkansas and Indiana, notes the Washington Post. Read more here.
Venezuelans Step Into the Breach
As Venezuela’s health care system collapses under the twin forces of the pandemic and a shattered economy, residents are increasingly taking it upon themselves to care for family members hospitalized for COVID-19 in the nation’s critically understaffed facilities, the Associated Press reports. Part of the problem is a shortage of skilled medical workers in a country where doctors at state-run hospitals are poorly paid. Read more here.
U.S. Hospitals Reel Under New Caseloads
Four regions of the country—the Upper Midwest, the Mountain West, the Southwest and Appalachia—are seeing floods of new coronavirus hospitalizations, with 42,000 people admitted on Monday alone in those four regions, the Washington Post reports. Hospitals in El Paso, Texas, reached 100% capacity Sunday; the city is setting up a field hospital to handle the overflow. Milwaukee similarly set up a temporary hospital on state fairgrounds. Health officials warn that the next step in many places could be rationing of care. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jeffrey Kluger and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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