A Vaccine Seems Imminent—But We’re Still at Halftime
Once you’ve watched as much Star Trek as I have—which is to say, far too much—you realize the show tends to repeat a handful of tropes. One of my personal favorites: some kind of alien/virus/extra-dimensional force infects most of the ship’s crew, turning them into murderers, or arachnids, or murderous arachnids. The survivors concoct an antidote, disseminate it instantly via the ship’s ventilation system and save the day, end credits to theme.
I’m worried that lots of people are thinking about a coronavirus vaccine the same way: the moment one becomes available, this whole nasty episode will come to an immediate, neat conclusion. I’m sorry to say that won’t be the case. A vaccine is not an off switch on the pandemic. It’s more like a dimmer, having a slow but steady impact until, eventually, the emergency’s over and we can figure out what our new normal looks like.
I don’t mean to sound all doom-and-gloom. It sounds increasingly like a vaccine will be available on the early end of most experts’ estimates—as my colleague Jamie Ducharme reports, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said yesterday that at least one is likely to be available for the most vulnerable Americans—seniors, health care workers and first responders—in January, just three months from now. But if Azar’s timeline holds, it will be a few more months, probably April, before mass immunization efforts really get underway. That’s six months from now, and we’re only about seven months into the U.S. outbreak.
There are two important takeaways here. First, for the sake of our collective mental health, we should make sure our expectations meet reality—we’re basically at halftime, and we’re for at least several more months of some pretty weird, confusing, and difficult stuff (while COVID-19 morbidity is dropping thanks to new treatments and techniques, it’s still a deadly infection with potentially devastating consequences even for those who survive their initial bout). Second, for the next few months—and even as a vaccine starts getting deployed—we’re still going to have to wear masks, practice social distancing and all the rest for a while, until enough people get vaccinated that it’s safe to go back to normal, or something like it. We will eventually get through this—but we can’t let our guard down just because a vaccine is around the corner.
More than 41.2 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 1.1 million people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Oct. 21, there were 443,751 new cases and 6,563 new deaths confirmed globally. Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here is every country with over 500,000 confirmed cases:
Spain and France today both passed the 1 million mark for total coronavirus cases throughout the pandemic, becoming the first European countries to do so. For Spain, the latest uptick comes after a major first wave earlier this year; France faced a less severe outbreak earlier on. Officials in both countries are now implementing (or re-implementing) a variety of stricter public health rules, ranging from social distancing requirements to mask mandates to travel limitations.
Things are looking gloomy across Europe more broadly, too. Germany, for example, today reported 11,287 new COVID-19 cases in a single day, topping the 10,000 mark for the first time. While the country has been praised for its effective pandemic response compared to many of its western European peers, the latest data suggest an alarming wintertime spike is imminent. Germany has so far reported nearly 400,000 cases and nearly 10,000 deaths throughout the pandemic, for a per-capita death rate of 11.8 for every 100,000 people.
Belgian Deputy Prime Minister Sophie Wilmès is in intensive care with COVID-19, The Guardianreports. Wilmès’ hospitalization comes as Belgium more broadly is dealing with one of the most dramatic coronavirus spikes in Western Europe; along with the Czech Republic, Belgium is now reporting about 80 new cases for every 100,000 people, unprecedented numbers:
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 8.3 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 222,000 people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Oct. 21, there were 62,735 new cases and 1,124 new deaths confirmed in the U.S. Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention made a slight but important change yesterday regarding how it defines “close contact” in terms of COVID-19. Previously, “close contact” referred to spending at least 15 minutes with an infected person in a single interaction. Now, it’s defined as spending a cumulative 15 minutes or more with an infected person over a 24-hour window. The change accounts for known cases of viral spread after “multiple brief exposures,” as a new CDC study puts it.
A U.S. Food and Drug Administration advisory committee key to the COVID-19 vaccine approval process gathered for several hours today (and, as we send this email, is still meeting). Committee members stressed that science is guiding the approval process, and added that the FDA will conduct follow-up testing with specific groups of people and to test the duration of a given vaccine’s efficacy if need be. But during the public-comment period, infectious disease experts and patient advocates argued that longer follow-up of vaccine volunteers is needed—FDA guidelines suggest two months; others maintain at least six months is necessary—and that the emergency-use-authorization process, which is faster than the traditional FDA approval, isn't sufficient to release vaccines that hundreds of millions of people will be getting. The advisory committee said it will take all of the issues raised into consideration as it decides how to evaluate the vaccines for safety and effectiveness.
Former U.S. President Barack Obama yesterday took aim at his successor’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic. “Donald Trump isn’t suddenly going to protect all of us,” Obama said during a rally for Democratic presidential hopeful Joe Biden, Obama’s former vice president. “He can’t even take the basic steps to protect himself.” Biden, Obama continued, is “not going to screw up testing. He’s not going to call scientists idiots. He’s not going to hold a super spreader event at the White House.”
New unemployment claims dropped below the 800,000 mark last week, according to new U.S. Department of Labor data out this morning. While that’s a welcome improvement compared to past weeks and months, the overall number of new claims—787,000—is still well over the pre-pandemic record of 671,000, set in 1982, as Yahoo Finance notes. Moreover, nearly 8.4 million Americans remain out of work in total, a number that may increase as new outbreaks across the country force additional lockdowns and closures.
New Jersey governor Phil Murphy is in quarantine after potential coronavirus exposure at a Hoboken bar, NJ.com reports. “The contact tracing process is underway, and anyone, including members of the press, believed to have exposure as defined by CDC guidelines will be notified,” Trenton officials said this morning. New Jersey was one of the hardest-hit states early in the pandemic before largely getting its outbreak under control over the summer, though there have been signs of a spike as more businesses and schools open back up.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of October 22, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
You Can Now Get a COVID-19 Vaccine in China. That Might Not Be a Good Thing
Chinese citizens who want a coronavirus vaccine can now pay a private lab for an injection, my colleague Charlie Campbell reports. But the shot hasn’t passed Stage 3 clinical trials, alarming health experts. Read more here.
Don’t Stock Up on Listerine Just Yet
A study looking into mouthwash’s ability to “inactivate” coronaviruses has been shared far and wide on social media over the past few days. But, the New York Times reports, the study didn’t look specifically at SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, nor did it investigate mouthwash’s effect on viral spread between people. Read more here.
Chris Christie: I Should Have Worn a Mask
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, a close ally of President Trump who was recently diagnosed with COVID-19, says he should have worn a mask during debate preparations with Trump and at a recent White House event, both of which appear to have resulted in significant viral spread. “It was a serious failure for me, as a public figure, to go maskless at the White House,” Christie writes. “I paid for it, and I hope Americans can learn from my experience.” Read more here.
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Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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