The Debate Was Exactly the Kind of Risk Experts Warned Us About
For months, experts have hammered home one message: The riskiest place to be in a pandemic is an indoor environment with lots of other people, particularly if those people are unmasked. If even one person is infected under these conditions, an innocent gathering can quickly turn into a super-spreading event.
In a worst-case scenario, Tuesday's presidential debate could turn into one of those feared events following President Donald Trump's coronavirus diagnosis.
The debate's host facility, Case Western Reserve University, did a lot of things right. Candidates stayed at least six feet away from one another and did not shake hands. Spectators' chairs were spaced apart, capacity was limited to 100 people and onlookers were screened for coronavirus before the debate. Attendees were also asked to wear masks, though some—including First Lady Melania Trump, who also tested positive for COVID-19—removed theirs.
Even with those precautions, there's still the issue of airborne transmission.
Research now strongly suggests people can catch COVID-19 not only through direct contact with large respiratory droplets, such as those expelled by a sick person's cough or sneeze, but also by inhaling tiny aerosol particles that can linger in the air for hours after they're exhaled. "The idea that distancing alone will protect us is incorrect," says Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert from Virginia Tech. The risks of airborne transmission are highest in crowded indoor environments where people are unmasked and expelling lots of aerosols by talking, singing or yelling. Bars fit that bill—as do, say, debate halls where people are loudly talking over one another, unmasked, for 90 minutes.
The big question now is whether Trump was contagious on Tuesday. It's not clear when he was exposed, but research has shown that people tend to be most contagious right before they develop symptoms—so if Trump and his circle were already infectious on Tuesday, his staff and everyone in the room for the debate is feasibly at risk. (If the room was well-ventilated, the risk to onlookers is substantially lower.) Vice President Joe Biden has so far tested negative for the virus, which is a good sign since he was standing closest to Trump.
If future presidential debates go forward in person, experts say organizers will need to implement strong air filtration and ventilation systems, in addition to testing and physical distancing. And for the general public, this incident should be a reminder that indoor gatherings aren’t a great idea right now.
“These are exactly the types of events you want to avoid: a lot of people in a room, talking and not wearing masks,” Marr says.
More than 34.2 million people around the world had been sickened by COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 1 million people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Oct. 1, there were 318,181 new cases and 8,697 new deaths confirmed globally. Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here is every country with over 400,000 confirmed cases to date ("per cap" is number per 100,000 people):
Global markets are suffering in the wake of news that U.S. President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump have tested positive for the coronavirus. The U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average was down more than 400 points this morning, or roughly 1.6%. Markets have also dropped in Japan, Australia, France, Germany and the U.K.
As cases continue to rise in Europe, several major cities are heading back toward lockdowns. Spanish Health Minister Salvador Illa announced Wednesday that Madrid would reimplement lockdown measures, while French Minister of Health Olivier Véran said yesterday that Paris may be forced to take similar precautions. Few major cities have reentered lockdown after lifting it, but rebounds in infection rates may make such moves necessary.
The COVID-19 pandemic has given 91 countries around the world an excuse to impose new restrictions on the media, and at least 72 have cracked down on free speech and government criticism, according to a report from the nonprofit Freedom House published today. “What began as a worldwide health crisis has become part of the global crisis for democracy,” said Freedom House President Michael J. Abramowitz in a statement accompanying the report.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 7.2 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 207,700 people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Oct. 1, there were 43,752 new cases and 857 new deaths confirmed in the U.S. Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Following news of President Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis, top government officials and politicians are scrambling to get tested. So far, Vice President Joe Biden and his wife Jill Biden have tested negative, as have Vice President Mike Pence, his wife Karen Pence, and Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett, CNN reports (Barrett was believed to have COVID-19 earlier this year, my colleague Tessa Berenson reported today). Vice presidential hopeful Kamala Harris also tested negative yesterday.
Meanwhile, Utah Senator Mike Lee tested positive for the virus shortly after meeting with Barrett and attending a number of other government meetings, the Hill reports. University of Notre Dame President John Jenkins also reportedly tested positive; he attended Barrett’s nomination announcement ceremony—without a mask—at the White House on Saturday.
The U.S. House of Representatives yesterday passed a $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief package that would restore the extra $600 per week in federal unemployment benefits, provide direct payments to Americans and direct funding to schools and state and local governments. The Democratic-backed package goes next to the Republican-controlled Senate, where it is unlikely to pass. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said he opposes any relief bill costlier than $2 trillion.
Nearly 20,000 of Amazon’s front-line workers have tested or been presumed positive for the coronavirus, the company announced in a blog post yesterday. Amazon came to that number after analyzing data from 1.37 million employees collected between March and Sept. 19. The company noted that its rate of infection is lower than that of the general population.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of October 2, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Nobody Knows What Happens Next
President Trump’s positive coronavirus test opens the door to a thousand questions about the election, the economy and the country—but nobody has answers right now, write TIME’s Philip Elliott and Vera Bergengruen. Read more here.
At 74, Trump Is at High Risk of COVID-19 Complications
Throughout the pandemic, older people have been more likely to develop serious or fatal cases of COVID-19. Though he has so far reported only mild symptoms, 74-year-old President Trump falls squarely within that high-risk group. Read more here.
Will Trump's Diagnosis Change the Way He Handles the Pandemic?
Probably not, if Brazil and the U.K. are indications. Both countries’ leaders contracted the virus after downplaying its severity, but neither substantially changed their approaches in the aftermath, writes TIME’s Billy Perrigo. Read more here.
Why Native Alaskans Missed Out on Pandemic Relief
A legal technicality prevented pandemic relief money from going to Alaska Native communities—even though the judge who made the ruling believes the funds were intended for them. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jamie Ducharme and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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