Knowing what you know about the coronavirus and the way it spreads, would you go see a movie right now? How about hopping on a commercial flight? Or eating indoors at a restaurant? Your answers to these questions can help illuminate your COVID-19 “risk tolerance”—or how willing you are to engage in risky behaviors right now compared to other people.
Personally, I fall on the more conservative side. I have few qualms about necessary errands like grocery shopping or even spending time with a small number of people indoors, but I’m not about to take major unnecessary risks like flying for a vacation. In part, that’s because somewhere along the way I turned from a reckless skateboarding teen into a fairly cautious, mostly non-skateboarding adult and father. But it’s also because I live in the New York metro area, and I’ve seen firsthand the horrible toll this virus can extract if you’re not careful. I suspect people for whom COVID-19 has been mostly just a headline on the daily news may be more risk tolerant, but that’s just a hypothesis.
My colleague Chris Wilson and I were curious if those factors—personality, geography and more—have any bearing on people’s coronavirus risk tolerance. So Chris built the following interactive, which puts forth a handful of scenarios and asks whether you’d feel safe engaging in them. When you’re done, you’ll see how your results compare to others who have also taken the quiz.
Chris and I are both eager to see the results, and we hope you find them enlightening as well. Please send any feedback or questions to coronavirus@time.com. We look forward to hearing from you, and stay safe out there.
A quick programming note: the TIME Coronavirus Brief will now be sent at 4 p.m. E.T. daily, instead of 3 p.m. Nothing else will change, you'll just get this in your inbox slightly later each day.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 39.8 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 1.1 million people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Oct. 18, there were 229,235 new cases and 2,766 new deaths confirmed globally. Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here is every country with over 500,000 confirmed cases ("per cap" is number per 100,000 people):
UNICEF, the United Nations agency that works to protect the world’s children, announced today a plan to stockpile more than a half-billion syringes by the end of this year, in anticipation of an eventual coronavirus vaccine. “In order to move fast later, we must move fast now,” said UNICEF Executive Director Henrietta Fore in a statement. The agency is also working with various countries on their vaccine rollout infrastructure and planning.
While many of the world’s economies are in shambles due to the virus, the Chinese economy rebounded nearly 5% in the most recent quarter compared to previous quarters. The remarkable turnaround is evidence that, unlike with past recessions caused by structural economic issues, a quick recovery is possible once the coronavirus is under control.
South Africa Health Minister Dr. Zweli Mkhize and his wife have tested positive for COVID-19, he announced in a tweet yesterday. “I am now in quarantine at home and both my wife and I remain optimistic that we will fully recover from this virus,” he wrote. “I wish to take this opportunity to urge all South Africans to continue adhering to health protocols.” South Africa has the continent's worst outbreak, with more than 703,000 cases and more than 18,400 deaths so far.
Sweden appears to be changing course on the virus after its infamously lax approach led to disaster (the country’s per-capita death rate of 58.6 per 100,000 people is one of the highest in the world). Beginning today, regional health officials can start telling residents to avoid gyms, public transit, shopping centers and other risky situations. However, those suggestions are more guidelines than rules, signaling Swedish leaders aren’t yet ready to commit to a more heavy-handed approach.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 8.1 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 219,000 people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Oct. 18, there were 48,210 new cases and 388 new deaths confirmed in the U.S. Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Coronavirus cases—and, more alarmingly, hospitalizations—continue to rise nationwide. From Oct. 16 onwards, 11 states—Indiana, Ohio, Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota, North Carolina, North Dakota, New Mexico, Wisconsin, West Virginia and Wyoming—have set new records for cases reported in a single day. While doctors have gotten better at treating COVID-19 patients through new medicines and techniques, deaths will likely rise as well—to say nothing of the little-understood long-term health consequences. The data suggest that more strict lockdowns may be necessary in many places in the coming weeks.
There’s a new coronavirus stimulus deadline on the table: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said yesterday she and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin need to agree on a deal by tomorrow if any second effort is to be passed before Election Day, CNN reports. Democrats and Republicans remain split on key issues, like funding for national testing and tracing efforts, while U.S. President Donald Trump’s conflicting messaging on a second stimulus—he has both threatened to walk away entirely and called for an even bigger number than congressional Republicans—has confused the process. However, even if another stimulus package passes soon, whether it will affect the election is an open question—the benefits will take time to be distributed and many Americans have already voted early.
Nationwide pharmacy chain CVS Health plans to hire 15,000 workers ahead of an expected rise in both coronavirus and flu this fall and winter, the company announced today. Most of the new hires will be pharmacy technicians tasked in part with administering flu shots and COVID-19 tests.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of October 19, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Dr. Anthony Fauci Is Getting Death Threats
In a wide-ranging interview with CBS’ 60 Minutes, Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that the White House has restricted him from making certain media appearances, that he was “absolutely not” surprised that President Trump got sick, and revealed that he and his family are receiving death threats, forcing him to travel with a security detail. Read more here.
Inside the White House’s Task Force as Coronavirus Surges
As the U.S. stares down the barrel of a third wave of coronavirus, the White House’s outbreak task force has been gripped by a power battle between two members, the Washington Post reports: Dr. Deborah Birx, the group’s coordinator and a longtime HIV/AIDS expert, and Scott Atlas, a controversial neuroradiologist who has defied the government’s own scientists at nearly every turn (and whose unsubstantiated comment that masks don’t stop viral spread was recently taken down by Twitter). Read more here.
Few Cases in New York City Schools—So Far
Here’s some good news for nervous parents: among more than 10,000 randomly tested New York City public school students and staff, there were only 18 positive results, the New York Times reports—further evidence that, with proper precautions in place, K-12 schools may not spread the virus as much as some fear. Still, the school year has only just begun. Read more here.
Demystifying the Conflicting Remdesivir Results
After two major studies offered seemingly conflicting results about antiviral drug remdesivir’s effectiveness in treating COVID-19, my colleague Alice Park asked the experts for their take. The result: a split decision. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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