What Makes This COVID-19 Wave Different From All Other COVID-19 Waves?
Without a shadow of a doubt, the third wave of coronavirus is now upon us. The United States hit a new record high for daily cases on Oct. 23, at 83,757. Moreover, as my colleague Chris Wilson noted over the weekend, the country has hit a weekly average of 23 infections per 100,000 residents—and climbing. The situation is similarly deteriorating across Europe (though there, it is more a second wave, as the region largely avoided the summer outbreaks the U.S. suffered).
Geographically speaking, the U.S. outbreak has long looked like a bad wildfire season: a trouble spot pops up, measures are taken to address it, and then it calms down, only for another fire to spark elsewhere. But this time, huge swaths of the country are ablaze, including rural areas once thought less susceptible because they’re less densely populated. That’s especially troubling because many of these states lack the medical infrastructure to deal with a major outbreak; hospitals in states like Idaho, Missouri and North Dakota are now overwhelmed with virus patients.
Making matters worse, some leaders charged with fighting these fires have denied the severity—or even existence—of the flames in the first place. “Cases up because we TEST, TEST, TEST,” U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted this morning. “A Fake News Media Conspiracy. Many young people who heal very fast. 99.9%. Corrupt Media conspiracy at all time high. On November 4th., topic will totally change.”
Let’s be clear: the “topic” will not “totally change” after Election Day. The coronavirus is killing hundreds of Americans every day, and there is no sign it will magically abate to the point of un-newsworthiness on Nov. 4. Furthermore, while testing has increased, that can’t entirely explain the huge rise in cases in recent weeks.
That said, the virus is indeed infecting more younger people than it did earlier in the U.S. outbreak, and younger people tend to better weather the illness (but they can and do sometimes get very sick and die). In fact, there are a number of factors making this wave different from the first two, as my colleague Emily Barone reports. For example: while cases are skyrocketing, deaths are not yet following suit.
To be sure, deaths are what economists call a “lagging indicator”—it takes time for people to get infected, develop symptoms and, in the worst scenarios, die, so reported deaths tend to lag behind reported cases. But at the same time, as Emily writes, doctors, scientists and others have now had months to learn about this novel disease and figure out ways to curb infections, treat the sick and keep more people from dying. “What’s happening now is not a result of how the virus treats humans, but rather how humans are treating the virus—that is, how we test for it, how we avoid it and how we combat it,” she writes.
That’s cause for hope that the third wave of COVID-19 may not be as deadly as the first two, at least in terms of the case fatality rate—the percentage of infected people who eventually die. But with the virus infecting so many Americans, overall deaths may rise even if that percentage stays steady or falls. Moreover, many of those who recover from their initial bout go on to develop mysterious, sometimes debilitating symptoms. So even if we’re getting better at treating the coronavirus, it’s urgent that we keep working to curb spread in the first place by wearing a mask, social distancing and so on—hundreds of thousands of lives could depend on it.
Nearly 43 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 1.1 million people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Oct. 25, there were 377,073 new cases and 3,845 new deaths confirmed globally. Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here is every country with over 500,000 confirmed cases:
China is testing nearly 5 million people in the western autonomous area of Xinjiang following reports of a single asymptomatic case, CNN reports . While the coronavirus outbreak began in China, the country experienced only a single wave before getting things largely under control, in part through strict lockdown measures. China has reported 91,151 cases and 4,739 deaths throughout the pandemic.
Austria may become the latest European country to enact a second nationwide lockdown as the virus continues to rapidly spread around the country. Austria, which has a population of nearly 9 million, is reporting more than 30,200 active cases with over 1,000 people hospitalized, according to U.S. News and World Report. “We are experiencing massive, exponential growth,” Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz told reporters today. “This is an extreme challenge.”
Health officials in South Korea have found no direct link between this year’s flu vaccine and the deaths of about four dozen people who have received that shot, my colleague Alice Park reports. Their reassurance comes amid concerns that this year’s flu season could be especially devastating in combination with the COVID-19 outbreak.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 8.6 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 225,000 people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Oct. 25, there were 60,789 new cases and 340 new deaths confirmed in the U.S. Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
In a widely-shared interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows on Sunday indicated that the Trump Administration’s pandemic strategy is focused on vaccines and treatments rather than curbing viral spread in the first place. “We are not going to control the pandemic,” Meadows said. “We are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigation areas.” But a vaccine remains months away and there is no cure for COVID-19, only treatments, many of which remain experimental. Moreover, Meadows’ comments come after several White House staffers close to U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, including his chief of staff, have tested positive for the virus, yet Pence himself is continuing with his reelection campaign schedule.
Facing a growing outbreak that’s straining available resources, hospitals in Utah are set to begin rationing care within the next two weeks, the Salt Lake Tribunereports. In such a plan, doctors would prioritize patients who are appearing more responsive to treatment or are otherwise more likely to survive, while reducing care for those who appear to be or are statistically more likely to die. Utah reached a new single-day record for cases on Oct. 23, hitting 1,960, while coronavirus hospitalizations are at their highest number yet—and climbing.
Pharmaceutical firm Pfizer is moving ahead with testing its coronavirus vaccine in children as young as 12 years old, CNN reports, a sign that its earlier tests have shown promising (and safe) results. New vaccines are first tested with adults; if they seem safe and effective, they are then tested with increasingly younger study participants.
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has nixed a plan that called for recruiting Santa Claus performers to promote an eventual coronavirus vaccine in exchange for early access to the shot, the Wall Street Journalreports. Public service announcements are a tried-and-true tool for reducing vaccine hesitancy, but the promise of early access in exchange for participating is unusual. “Those who perform as Mrs. Claus and elves also would have been included,” noted the paper.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of October 26, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Young People Are Becoming Enthusiastic Poll Workers
Poll workers in U.S. elections—the people who help you sign in and cast your ballot—have long tended to be older folks with plenty of free time on their hands. But given that elderly people are at heightened risk of severe coronavirus infections, this year younger Americans are stepping up to keep the machinery of democracy moving smoothly, my colleague Raisa Bruner reports. Read more here.
A Climate Scientists’ Guide for Combating COVID-19 Disinformation
“If any group understands the toll misinformation can take on the public understanding of science,” writes Sarah Gibbens at National Geographic, “it’s climate scientists.” Here’s what we can learn from their decades of experience fighting rumors, myths and outright lies. Read more here.
The Pandemic Left These People With Nothing
The outbreak has led to economic disaster for millions of Americans—even some of those who did all the right things when it came to saving for a rainy day. Here are their heartbreaking stories, as BuzzFeed News reports. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
If you were forwarded this and want to sign up to receive it daily, click here.
Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
沒有留言:
張貼留言